基于2050年中国人口发展愿景的工程科技需求分析

A Demand Analysis of Science and Technology Based on China’s Population Vision in 2050

“人口”是影响未来趋势的核心驱动力之一。本文面向2050年人口发展愿景开展工程科技需求分析。研究发现:2050年,中国人口总量进入负增长,实现适度生育面临较大压力,老龄化程度持续加深,劳动年龄人口规模及比重下降,人口健康水平与素质能力稳步提升,人口向核心城市群集聚更趋明显。人口老龄化对老年慢性病诊治及管理、老年人日常性照护需求增加,劳动力结构性短缺亟需填补数量、增强身心健康,人口健康水平提升使对治愈重大疾病和罕见病、替换故障组织及器官需求增多,人口综合素质提高推动健康意识从被动医疗向主动健康转变、追求多样化个性化品质化医疗服务等。对此,要瞄准精准医疗、智慧医疗、远程医疗、生物打印、人工智能、大数据等工程科技手段。

Population is one of the core driving forces affecting the future trend.A demand analysis of science and technology was conducted based on China’s population vision in 2050.According to the result,in 2050,China’s population will be decreasing and difficult to achieve a moderate fertility,the aging will be deepen and the total labor force will decline,the health and quality of people will improve,more people will cluster in core metropolitan areas.The aging will cause increasing demand for diagnosis and management of chronic diseases and daily care,the structural shortage of labour need be well closed and their physical and mental health need be strengthened,people’s improving health produces increasing demand to cure serious diseases and replace aging tissue and organ,people’s improving quality changes their health consciousness and promotes them to purse high‑quality medical services.As a result,the precision medical treatment,intelligent medical treatment,telemedicine,bio‑printing,artificial intelligence,big data and other technologies prove more important.