中国碳交易政策的减排效应及其机制研究

Study on the Emission Reduction Effect and Mechanism of China’s Carbon Trading Policy

全球气候变暖对环境和经济发展影响巨大,碳排放是气候变暖的主要原因,碳交易政策是基于市场机制控制碳排放及推动绿色低碳发展的一项核心政策工具。采用2004—2019年中国30个省的面板数据(因数据缺失,未包含西藏地区和港澳台地区数据),基于双重差分和中介效应模型对碳交易政策的减排效应及其作用机制进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,不论从总体看还是分区域看,碳交易政策均具有显著的减排效应,但效应的大小存在区域差异,碳交易政策在东部地区的减排效应比中西部地区更大。机制分析发现,碳交易政策可通过减少能源消耗规模、促进技术创新、促进产业结构升级、增加外商直接投资等渠道实现减排,能源规模、技术创新、产业结构、外商投资等在碳交易政策传导中具有显著的中介效应,但这种传导机制存在区域差异。

Global warming has a great impact on the environment and economic development.Carbon emissions are the main cause of climate warming.Carbon trading policy is a core policy tool to control carbon emissions based on market mechanism and promote green and low‑carbon development.By using the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2019(Due to the lack of data,the statistical data mentioned here do not include Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,Macao Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Province.),the emission reduction effect and its mechanism of carbon trading policy were empirically studied based on the double difference and mediating effect model.The results show that carbon trading policy has significant emission reduction effect both in general and in sub regions,but there are regional differences in the size of the effect.The emission reduction effect of carbon trading policy in the eastern region is greater than that in the central and western regions.Mechanism analysis shows that carbon trading policy can reduce emissions through reducing the scale of energy consumption,promoting technological innovation,promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and increasing foreign direct investment.Energy scale,technological innovation,industrial structure and foreign investment have significant mediating effects in the transmission of carbon trading policy,but there are regional differences in this transmission mechanism.