摘要
Diverse evidence suggests that the sustainability of endorheic regions will be the underbelly of achieving the transformative promise“leave no one behind”of the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)proposed by the United Nations;for example,“Aral Sea Syndrome”[1],“basin closure symptom”[2],and saline lake salinization[3]are undermining life support systems and human wellbeing[4].Global warming is reducing the amount of solid water resources in mountainous regions[5],which,in turn,threatens the Asia water tower[6]that supports local life systems.
气候变化与人类活动的共同作用给全球内陆河流域可持续性带来了巨大挑战,探索内陆河流域可持续性主导因素是应对这个挑战的重要途径.本文在流域尺度建立了一个耦合联合国可持续发展目标(SDGs)、共享社会经济路径(SSPs)和流域集成模型的综合集成框架,定量分析了降水、温度、技术进步、人口、城市化和远程因素(生态水流)对水、农业、生态系统和经济系统之间协同关系的影响,识别不同气候条件和人类干扰下主导内陆河流域可持续性转变的关键因素.研究发现,降水、技术进步、生态水流、人口、城市化和温度间的协同作用主导着内陆河流域可持续性.其中,单因素作用分析表明技术进步对可持续性的影响最显著,其次是城市化和温度,降水的独立作用最不显著;多因素作用分析表明生态水流与其他因素间的联合作用对可持续性的影响最显著,其次是降水、城市化和温度,技术进步的联合作用最不显著.这些发现促进了对内陆河流域快速发展的经济从恶化的生态环境中脱钩机制的深入理解,为这个薄弱地区提供了共同实现多个可持续发展目标的参考路径,也为内陆河流域可持续性转变的科学研究和政策制定提供了一个有益的视角.
作者
Yingchun Ge
Xin Li
Guodong Cheng
Bojie Fu
Jianguo Liu
Lei Gao
Fanglei Zhong
Ling Zhang
Shengtang Wang
盖迎春;李新;程国栋;傅伯杰;刘建国;皋磊;钟方雷;张凌;王生棠(Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;National Tibetan Plateau Data Center,State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System,Environment and Resources,Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Institute of Urban Studies,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234,China;State Key Laboratory of Earth Processes and Resource Ecology,State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100082,China;Center for Systems Integration and Sustainability,Department of Fisheries and Wildlife,Michigan State University,East Lansing MI 48824,USA;Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation,Waite Campus,Urrbrae SA 5064,Australia;School of Economics,Minzu University of China,Beijing 100081,China)
基金
This work was jointly supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20100104)
the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41988101,41630856,and 41471448)
the Pioneer Hundred Talents Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Y551821002).
