人工智能在核作战体系中的潜在应用及影响浅析

An analysis of the potential application and influence of artificial intelligence in nuclear combat systems

世界人工智能技术快速发展,机器学习和自主系统是当前人工智能复兴的主要特征。主要军事大国积极推动本国人工智能发展及其在军事上的应用,有核国家人工智能的军事化发展必然会向核作战领域延伸。当前人工智能在核作战体系中尚未有明确的应用,但已经表现出在核作战体系各个方面的应用潜力,其潜在应用将对未来核战争带来变革性影响。本文首先概述了主要有核国家人工智能军事化发展的战略政策,梳理了与核作战相关的应用情况;然后分别从预警与侦察、指挥控制、核武器投送和战略性非核作战等四个方面分析了人工智能在核作战体系中的潜在应用方式;最后从破坏稳定和效能提升等角度分析了其对未来核作战的冲击影响。

Artificial intelligence(AI)technology is rapidly developing over the world,and the most important features of AI are machine learning and autonomous systems.Major military powers actively promote the development and military application of AI.In nuclear armed states AI militarization will inevitably include AI application in nuclear combat.Currently,AI has not been clearly applied in nuclear combat systems,but its potential application will have a transformative impact on future nuclear wars.This paper summarizes the strategic policies of AI militarization in major nuclear-armed states and the status of AI application related to nuclear warfare.Then,the potential application of AI in nuclear combat systems is analyzed from four aspects:early warning and reconnaissance,command and control,nuclear weapon delivery,and non-nuclear combat.Finally,the impact of AI on future nuclear warfare in terms of destabilization and performance enhancement is discussed.