疫情冲击对中国生猪市场波动的影响分析

Analysis of the Impact of Epidemic Shock on China’s Hog Market Volatility

基于2012年第1季度—2021年第2季度中国生猪市场及生猪疫情基础数据,采用TVP-VAR-SV模型实证分析非洲猪瘟等疫情冲击对生猪市场的影响,并探究其内在影响机理。结果表明:生猪市场波动的疫情冲击效应具有时变特征,不同时期疫情冲击影响存在明显差异;非洲猪瘟疫情发生之后生猪市场所受影响更大,总体表现为抑制生猪生产、推动生猪及猪肉价格上涨;生猪生产和价格受疫情冲击影响呈现出截然相反态势,且疫情对生猪及猪肉价格的冲击影响较生猪存栏、出栏更大;疫情冲击对生猪市场影响存在滞后性且持续时间较长,一般需2~3年趋于平稳。基于此,建议夯实国内猪肉供给保障基础,巩固拓展国际猪肉供应链,持续提升生猪市场监测预警水平,多渠道多方式着力提高生猪产业及市场应对疫情等不确定性风险能力。

Based on data of China’s hog market and epidemic from the first quarter of 2012 to the second quarter of 2021,using a TVP-VAR-SV model,this paper empirically studied the time-varying impact of the epidemic including African swine fever on the hog market.The results showed that the impact of the epidemic on the hog market had time-varying characteristics with obvious differences in different periods.After the outbreak of African swine fever,the hog market was more affected by the epidemic.That is,the epidemic had inhibited the hog production and promoted the price increase of hog and pork.The production and price of hog were affected by the epidemic in a completely opposite situation,and the impact of the epidemic on the prices of hog and pork was greater than that of hog stock and slaughter.The impact of the epidemic on the hog market had a lasting lagging effect,which would be stabilized in another 2 to 3 years.Therefore,in order to improve the ability of the hog industry and market to respond to such uncertain risks as the epidemic,it was recommended to consolidate the domestic pork supply guarantee foundation,stabilize and expand the international pork supply chain,and continue to improve the monitoring and early warning ability of the hog market.