基于三参数威布尔分布模型的台风灾害损失研究

Study of Typhoon Disaster Loss Based on Three-Parameter Weibull Distribution Model

设计台风灾害损失保险产品能够很好地解决灾害理赔问题,但需要对台风灾害损失的概率分布参数进行准确估计。为此,本文基于2003—2020年间我国台风灾害损失数据,利用极大似然估计法构建台风灾害损失的三参数威布尔分布的参数估计模型,并采用基于仿生学原理的蜜獾算法求解模型,得到较为精确的模型参数估计值,实现了对我国台风灾害损失概率分布的精准刻画。

The design of typhoon disaster loss insurance products can well solve the problem of disaster compensation,but it is necessary to accurately estimate the probability distribution parameters of typhoon disaster loss.To this end,based on my country's typhoon disaster loss data from 2003 to 2020,this paper uses the maximum likelihood estimation method to con-struct a three-parameter Weibull distribution parameter estimation model for typhoon disaster loss.Finally,Honey Badger Al-gorithm based on bionics is employed to solve the proposed model.The results show that the parameter estimation obtained by the presented method is more accurate,which accurately describes the probability distribution of typhoon disaster loss in my country.