新冠肺炎疫情冲击、劳动力市场波动与稳就业的财政规则——基于搜寻摩擦的DSGE模型

The Shocks of COVID-19 Pandemic,Labor Market Fluctuation and Fiscal Policy Rules for Stable Employment——DSGE Model Based on Search Friction

本文在包含搜寻摩擦的DSGE模型中考察了新冠肺炎疫情引致的水平冲击和不确定性冲击对劳动力市场波动的宏观影响和微观机理,量化分析不同财政政策规则“稳就业”的效果。研究表明:疫情冲击在短期内导致失业率上升和岗位空缺下降,其中,水平冲击与不确定性冲击的交互作用是劳动力市场波动的主要驱动力;水平冲击在供需两端的叠加作用加剧了失业,其在供需两端的抵消作用则降低了工资波动;不确定冲击通过预防性储蓄效应抑制了总需求,加剧了劳动力市场波动;在不同财政政策中,政府购买规则在短期内“熨平”劳动力市场波动的效果优于税收规则,但也造成了对私人消费的挤出。此外,财政政策的时滞制约了其“稳就业”功能的充分发挥。

This paper uses the DSGE model including search matching friction to evaluate the macro-impacts and micro-mechanisms of various shocks caused by the pandemic on the labor market and compare the employment stability effects of different fiscal policy rules.The results show that:the pandemic has caused the rise of the unemployment rate and the decrease of job vacancies in the short run.The interaction effect between level shocks and uncertainty shocks caused by the pandemic is the main driving force of labor market fluctuation.The superimposed effect of level shocks on both sides of supply and demand intensifies the fluctuation of the unemployment rate and job vacancies,and its counteracting effect reduces the fluctuation of wage.Uncertainty shocks suppresses aggregate demand through precautionary savings effect,exacerbated labor market fluctuation.In the short run,the impact of government purchase rule on smoothing labor market fluctuation is better than that of tax rule,but it also results in crowding out of private consumption.In addition,the time lag of fiscal policy restricts the full play of its stable employment to a certain extent.