农业生产性服务业对农村居民消费的影响及其空间溢出效应——基于2009-2018年中国地级市面板数据的实证研究

The Impact of Agricultural Productive Services on Rural Residents′Consumption and Its Spatial Spillover Effect——An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data of Prefecture-level Cities in China From 2009 to 2018

增强消费对经济增长的核心作用对拉动国内需求、促进国内国际双循环的新发展格局具有不可替代的作用。本文基于2009-2018年中国198个地级市的年度数据,采用空间Durbin模型分析农业生产性服务业对农村居民消费的影响。研究发现:农村居民消费和农业生产性服务业空间分异明显,存在显著空间相关性和集聚特征。农业生产性服务业对农村居民消费的促进作用明显,且空间溢出效应显著。农业生产性服务业对农村居民消费的影响具有异质性特征:分行业类型来看,物流、信息软件、租赁商务以及科技等四个子行业对农村居民消费影响显著,而农村金融的促进作用微弱;分地理区位来看,农业生产性服务业对东部地区和西部地区的直接效应显著;分消费层次来看,农业生产性服务业对生存型和享受型消费的影响明显,对发展型消费的促进作用微弱。此外,人力资本水平、产业结构、城镇化率和政府干预等因素有利于提升农村居民消费,而城乡收入差距呈现负相关关系。因此,应加强战略产业培育与消费转型升级相匹配、促进人力资本提升与金融知识普及相结合以及注重政策动态调整与区域协调发展相适应。

Strengthening the core role of consumption in economic growth has an irreplaceable role in stimulating domestic demand and promoting the new development pattern of domestic and international dual circulation.Based on the annual data of 198 prefecture-level cities in China from 2009 to 2018,this paper uses the spatial Durbin model to analyze the impact of agricultural productive services on rural residents′consumption.The study found that there are obvious spatial differences between rural residents′consumption and agricultural productive services,with significant spatial correlations and agglomeration characteristics.The agricultural productive services plays a significant role in promoting rural residents′consumption,and the spatial spillover effect is significant.The impact of agricultural productive services on rural residents′consumption is heterogeneous:In terms of industry types,four sub-sectors,including logistics,information software,leasing business,and technology,have a significant impact on rural residents′consumption,while rural finance has a weak role in promoting;In terms of geographical location,the direct effect of agricultural productive services on the eastern and western regions is significant;In terms of consumption types,agricultural productive services have a significant impact on living and enjoyment consumption,but a weak promotion on development consumption.In addition,factors such as human capital level,industrial structure,urbanization rate,and government intervention are conducive to increasing rural residents′consumption,while the urban-rural income gap is negatively correlated.Therefore,this paper proposes to strengthen the matching between the cultivation of strategic industries and the transformation and upgrading of consumption,promote the combination of human capital improvement and financial knowledge popularization,and pay attention to the dynamic adjustment of policies and the adaptation of regional coordinated development.