老龄化对乡村振兴的影响研究

乡村振兴战略是解决我国现阶段发展主要矛盾的重要一环,对我国乡村发展具有重要意义。但长期城乡二元结构导致乡村人口流失严重,乡村逐渐向空心化老龄化转变,是乡村振兴战略的稳步实施的重要影响因素。乡村振兴具有5方面内涵,暨产业兴旺、生态宜居、乡风文明、治理有效和生活富裕,选取20个指标对乡村振兴的5个维度进行评价,同时构建系统动力学模型,模拟乡村振兴与老龄化水平之间的互动关系,并预测2020—2030年乡村振兴5个维度的评分。结果发现老龄化水平的加深对乡村振兴具有正向促进作用;对5个维度具有不同程度的促进作用,由快到慢基本顺序为生活富裕、乡风文明、产业兴旺、生态宜居和治理有效;乡村振兴的总体评分也呈现快速增长。该文从定量角度探讨老龄化对乡村振兴的影响,以期为乡村振兴实施提供一定的参考。

The strategy of rural revitalization is an important part of solving the main contradiction in the development of China at the present stage, and is of great significance to the rural development of China. However, the long-term dual structure of urban and rural areas has led to a serious loss of rural population, and the gradual transformation of rural areas to hollow aging is an important factor affecting the steady implementation of the rural revitalization strategy. Rural revitalization has five connotations, namely, industrial prosperity, ecological livability, rural civilization, effective governance and affluent life. Twenty indicators are selected to evaluate the five dimensions of rural revitalization, and a system dynamics model is constructed to simulate the interactive relationship between rural revitalization and the level of aging, and the score of the five dimensions of rural revitalization from 2020 to 2030 is predicted. The results show that the deepening of the aging level has a positive promoting effect on rural revitalization, and has a promoting effect on five dimensions in varying degrees, with the basic order from fast to slow as follows living affluence, rural civilization, industrial prosperity, ecological livability and effective governance;the overall score of rural revitalization also shows a rapid growth. From a quantitative perspective, this paper discusses the impact of aging on rural revitalization, in order to provide reference for the implementation of rural revitalization.