信息披露质量对房地产企业盈余预测的影响

Research on the Impact of Information Disclosure Quality on the Accuracy of Earnings Forecast of Real Estate Enterprises

在数字经济时代,信息的获取与分析效率大幅提升,分析师盈余预测数据是投资行为的重要参考。基于2016~2020年上市房地产企业数据,研究分析师盈余预测准确性的影响因素,发现上市房地产企业的预测误差率较高,盈余预测的准确性不仅与房地产企业信息披露质量有关,还受到宏观经济环境的影响。实证结果表明,良好的宏观经济环境和较高的信息披露质量可以降低分析师盈余预测误差率。因此,提高宏观经济趋势预测能力,构建企业高水平治理模式,加强企业风险应对准备,对稳定盈余波动,推动企业真实信息披露具有积极意义。

In the era of big data,the efficiency of information acquisition and analysis is greatly improved,and analyst earnings forecast data is an important reference for investment behavior. Based on the data of listed real estate companies from 2016 to 2020,this paper studies the factors influencing the accuracy of analysts′ earnings forecast,and finds that the error rate of analysts′ earnings forecast of listed real estate companies is high. The accuracy of earnings forecast is not only related to the quality of information disclosure of real estate companies,but also affected by macroeconomic environment. The empirical results show that good macroeconomic environment and high quality of information disclosure can reduce the error rate of earnings forecast. Improving the macroeconomic trend prediction ability,building enterprise high-level governance mode and strengthening the enterprise risk response have a positive meaning to stabilizing earnings volatility and promoting enterprise real information disclosure.