稳增长与防风险背景下地方债限额影响因素研究

Research on the Influencing Factors of Local Debt Limits under the Background of Steady Growth and Risk Prevention

选用2015年以来各省债务限额面板数据,实证分析稳增长与防风险背景下地方政府一般债务、专项债务新增限额的影响因素。研究发现:地方政府一般债务新增限额的显著影响因素包括一般预算支出、第一产业占比和一般预算结余,而并不包括地方政府一般债务风险;地方政府专项债务新增限额的显著影响因素有基金预算支出、基金预算收入和专项债务风险,而地方项目固定资产支出对专项债务新增限额的影响不显著。最后,根据结论提出了限额制定的相关建议。

This paper selected the panel data of the debt limit of each province since 2015,and empirically to analyze the influencing factors of the new limit of local government general debt and special debt under the background of stable growth and risk prevention.The study found that the significant influencing factors of the new limit of local government general debt included general budget expenditure,the proportion of primary industry and general budget balance,but not included the risk of local government general debt.The significant influencing factors of the new limit of local government special debt included the fund budget expenditures,fund budget revenue and special debt risks,while local project fixed asset expenditures had no significant impact on the new limit of special debts.Finally,according to the conclusion,it put forward relevant suggestions for setting the limit.