人口老龄化与企业对外直接投资——基于中国制造业上市企业的经验研究

Aging Population and Outward FDI of Firms——An Empirical Examination Based on Manufacturing Listed Firms in China

当前,中国经济正经历着对外投资持续快速增长和人口老龄化程度持续加深的转型阶段,而这两种现象背后是否存在内在联系是一个值得深入探讨的问题。为此,本文利用中国A股制造业上市企业微观数据,探讨了人口老龄化对企业对外直接投资的影响。研究发现,老龄化程度的上升显著提高了企业对外直接投资的概率,65岁及以上人口比重上升1个单位标准差,企业对外直接投资的可能性将会增加2.5%左右。机制分析结果显示,人口老龄化显著提升了劳动密集型制造业企业的劳动力成本,显著降低了其单位工资的产出效率,促使其通过对外直接投资的方式进行应对。进一步地,基于投资目的地的分析发现,老龄化主要促进了企业在中低收入国家的对外直接投资行为,而对劳动密集型企业而言,人口老龄化对其对外直接投资的促进作用更为明显。本文的研究为深入认识人口老龄化的经济效应和企业“走出去”的动机提供了新的研究视角和经验证据。

At present,China’s economy is undergoing a transitional stage of sustained and rapid growth of OFDI and the continuous improvement of the aging population.Whether there is a relationship between these two phenomena is a question worthy of in-depth discussion.This paper uses the micro data of manufacturing firms that are listed on the A-share stock market of China and macroeconomic data to explore the effects of population aging on firm’s OFDI.It finds that the rising of aging population has significantly increased the probability of firm’s OFDI.For every one unit standard deviation increase of the proportion of the population aged65 and over,the possibility of firm’s OFDI will increase by about 2.5%.Mechanism analysis shows that population aging has increased the labor cost of manufacturing enterprises and reduced the output efficiency of unit wages,especially in laborintensive enterprises,thus prompting them to respond through OFDI.Furthermore,the analysis based on destination finds that population aging mainly promotes firm’s OFDI in low-and middle-income countries,and for the enterprises with laborintensive,population aging has a greater impact on its OFDI behavior.The main contributions of this paper are as followed.Firstly,while the existing literature about the driving forces of the rapid growth of Chinese firms’OFDI mainly focus on tax avoidance,access to natural resources,technological spillovers,and the host market potential,this paper attempts to conduct the research from the perspective of population structure transformation,thus providing a useful supplement to the relevant literature.Secondly,the exiting literature about the economic effects of population aging mainly focus on analyzing the impact on economic growth,industrial structure,international trade,innovation,etc.This paper can provide micro-evidence support for existing research conclusions.At the same time,it can also provide empirical evidence support for the government to formulate relevant policies to actively respond to the issue of population aging.