开放经济下的中国财政政策乘数研究--基于金融摩擦的视角

The Research on China’s Fiscal Policy Multiplier under Open Economy:Based on the Perspective of Financial Frictions

本文在考虑开放经济和金融摩擦的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型框架下,引入多种财政政策工具,利用中国经济数据进行校准和估计,研究了中国财政政策乘数大小,并分析了参数的敏感性问题。研究表明:(1)金融摩擦情况下,政府支出对宏观经济的影响大于无金融摩擦情况,且金融摩擦情况下政府支出乘数较大。(2)开放经济下政府支出乘数的数值始终小于1。(3)税收的宏观经济效应小于政府支出效应,且乘数也小,但是税收的远期效果比近期效果大。(4)福利分析表明,货币政策参数的最优组合会产生较小的福利损失。(5)参数的敏感性分析表明,金融摩擦参数和政府支出自回归系数的上升会导致政府支出乘数增加;开放性程度增加情况下,乘数出现下降。通过本文的研究可以为当前积极财政政策提供一定的实证支撑。

Under the framework of New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, We consider a variety of fiscal policy tools, uses China’s economic data for calibration and estimation, and analyzes the sensitivity of parameters.We Study the multiplier of China’s fiscal policy, and the results show that:(1)In the case of financial frictions, government expenditure has a greater impact on the macroeconomy than in the case of no financial frictions, and the multiplier of government expenditure is larger in the case of financial frictions.(2)The multiplier of government expenditure is always less than 1 in an open economy.(3)The macroeconomic effect of tax is smaller than that of government expenditure, but the long-term effect of tax is larger than the short-term effect.(4)The welfare analysis shows that the optimal combination of monetary policy parameters will produce small welfare losses.(5)The sensitivity analysis of parameters shows that the multiplier of government expenditure increases with the increase of financial frictions parameter and the autoregressive coefficient of government expenditure, while the multiplier decreases with the increase of openness degree.The study of this paper can provide some empirical supports for the current proactive fiscal policy.