广西南宁市近13年降雨的时间序列分析及预测

Time Series Analysis and Forecast of Rainfall in Nanning City Based on the Rainfall Data during the Last 13 Years

对广西壮族自治区首府南宁市2006—2018年降雨资料进行时间序列分析,应用统计分析软件Excel 2013和SPSS 22对上述降雨数据进行季节因子分解,在对比加法模型和乘法模型建模误差的基础上选用乘法模型分析南宁市降雨数据的时间特征,同时应用专家建模法开展时间序列预测,预测南宁市2019年各月的降雨量。结果表明,南宁市降雨的时间序列可用乘法模型进行季节因子分解,简单季节性模型进行预测。南宁市2019年各月的降雨量预测值分别为48.7、25.6、57.2、68.3、144.3、188.2、246.4、213.3、123.9、89.0、62.1和37.9 mm,年降雨总量的预测值为1304.9 mm。与中国统计年鉴(2020年)中南宁市2019年的降雨实测统计数据进行比较分析,各月份降雨量预测值与实测值相关分析的决定系数(R^(2))为0.6636,全年降雨总量的绝对误差为82.3 mm,相对误差小于7%。预测值与实测值基本相符。

The rainfall data of Nanning City,capital of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region during the last 13 years from 2006 to 2018 were processed by the method of time series analysis.The seasonal factors of the above rainfall data were separated by the statistical analysis software Excel 2013 and SPSS 22.After comparing the model errors of additive model with multiplicative model,the time characteristics of the rainfall in Nanning were analyzed by the multiplicative model.Meanwhile,the time series prediction was carried out by the expert model,and the rainfall value of each month in Nanning in 2019 was predicted.The results showed that the time series of rainfall in Nanning could be simulated by multiplicative model and predicted by simple seasonal model.The predicted rainfall values of each month in Nanning in 2019 were 48.7,25.6,57.2,68.3,144.3,188.2,246.4,213.3,123.9,89.0,62.1 and 37.9 mm,and the predicted annual rainfall were 1304.9 mm.Compared with the actual rainfall data from the China Statistical Yearbook(2020),the determination coefficient of correlation analysis between the predicted value and the actual measured value of rainfall in each month was 0.6636,the absolute error was 82.3 mm,and the relative error was less than 7%.Therefore,the predicted values were basically consistent with the measured values.