河南省能源供需现状及未来煤炭供需预测

Current situation of energy supply and demand and future coal supply and demand forecast in Henan Province

河南省煤炭资源目前存在的问题为:煤炭资源开发潜力严重不足,已由传统的煤炭净调出区转变为大规模净调入区。文章深入剖析了近年来河南省煤炭产运需情况,运用四大耗煤行业法预测了“十四五”和“十五五”期末河南省煤炭需求量将降至1.8~1.9亿t,并结合省内各煤矿剩余可采储量、生产能力、剩余服务年限等信息进行排产,预测了全省“十四五”和“十五五”期末河南省煤炭产能将降至1.14~1.17亿t。预计未来一段时期,河南省煤炭对外省依存度还将继续提高、保供压力持续存在。最后从稳定区域产能、保证煤源供给、完善储配体系等方面提出了应对措施。

Henan Province has a long history of coal resources development and high mining intensity.In recent years,the development potential of coal resources is seriously insufficient.It has changed from the traditional net transfer out area of coal to the large-scale net transfer in area.The coal production,transportation and demand in Henan Province in recent years are deeply analyzed,and the four coal consuming industry methods are used to predict that the coal demand in the province,which will drop to 180~190 million tons at the end of the 14 th Five Year Plan and the 15 th Five Year Plan.Combining with the information of remaining recoverable reserves,production capacity and remaining service life of coal mines in Henan Province,it is predicted that the coal production capacity of Henan Province will drop to 114~117 million tons at the end of the 14 th Five Year Plan and the 15 th Five Year Plan.It is expected that,in the future,Henan Province’s coal dependence on other provinces will continue to increase and the pressure of supply ensuring will continue to exist.Finally,countermeasures are forward from stabilizing regional production capacity,ensuring coal source supply and improving storage and distribution system.