创新创业如何有效带动就业——基于系统动力学的传导机制及情景仿真分析

How to promote employment effectively through innovation and entrepreneurship: Conduction mechanism and scenario simulation analysis based on system dynamics

基于系统动力学的理论和方法构建了创新创业带动就业的SD模型,揭示了创新创业带动就业的传导渠道及作用机理,仿真分析了不同情境及政策影响下创新创业与就业系统中关键要素变化对主要宏观指标的影响,量化考察创新、创业对就业的带动作用。研究结果表明:适当优化创新研发投入和创业相关财税政策、提高创新成果向创业的转化率、鼓励机会型创业等可以显著带动就业与经济增长,同时要注意防范社会重大事件对系统平衡的冲击。区别于传统线性回归或局部均衡分析方法无法动态演绎和量化考察创新、创业、就业各系统间形成的迭代作用、反馈过程及复杂关系,研究强调了创新、创业对就业的带动作用,以期为“十四五”规划中“实施就业优先战略”提供更明晰的理论支持和政策参考。

Research based on system dynamics theory and method of constructing SD model of entrepreneurship and innovation to create more employment opportunities, reveals the transmission channels and mechanism of action of innovation entrepreneurship to create more employment opportunities, using simulation, including innovation, entrepreneurship and employment system in major public emergency elements under the different situation of the influence of the main indicators, quantitative analysis of employment of innovation and entrepreneurship. The research results show that measures such as appropriately adjusting the investment in innovation research and development and fiscal and tax policies related to entrepreneurship, increasing the conversion rate of innovation achievements to entrepreneurship,and encouraging opportunistic entrepreneurship can significantly promote employment and economic growth,and attention should be paid to preventing the destruction of system balance by major social events. The study overcomes the difficulty of traditional linear regression or local equilibrium analysis to dynamically deduce and quantify the iterative effect, feedback process and complex relationship between innovation,entrepreneurship and employment systems, emphasizes the leading role of innovation and entrepreneurship to employment, so as to provide clearer theoretical support and policy reference for “implementing employment priority strategy” in the 14th Five-Year Plan.