基于风险评价的核应急分区疏散规划

Zoning evacuation planning of nuclear emergency based on risk assessment

为保障核事故应急疏散的时效性和安全性,降低核事故损失,基于核辐射时空分布特征,对疏散集中点和疏散路网进行风险评价,提出分区疏散组织策略,结合行政区划法,完成核电站场外疏散区域划分;将总暴露风险作为优化目标,构建基于元胞传输的分区疏散规划模型,并以我国某沿海核电站为研究对象,验证分区疏散方案可行性。研究结果表明:考虑核辐射风险后的分区疏散方案,能够有效提高疏散效率,保障公众安全,降低疏散时间和暴露风险,优化疏散期间交通状况。研究结果可为核应急疏散组织工作提供参考。

To ensure the timeliness and safety of emergency evacuation in the nuclear accident and reduce the loss of nuclear accident,based on the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of nuclear radiation,the risk assessment on the evacuation concentration points and evacuation road network was carried out,and the zoning evacuation organization strategy was put forward.Combined with the administrative region division method and the zoning method based on risk assessment,the zoning of off-site evacuation area of the nuclear power plant was completed.Taking the total exposure risk as the optimization objective,a zoning evacuation planning model based on the cellular transmission was constructed,and the effect of zoning evacuation scheme was verified by taking a coastal nuclear power plant in China as the research object.The results showed that the zoning evacuation scheme considering the nuclear radiation risk could effectively improve the evacuation efficiency and ensure the public safety,reduce the evacuation time and exposure risk,and optimize the traffic conditions during evacuation.The research results have some reference value for the organization of nuclear emergency evacuation.