暴雨灾害下城市基础设施的事故演化风险分析

Risk Analysis of Urban Infrastructure Facilities Accident Evolution Under Rainstorm Disaster

随着城市热岛效应和“温室效应”的加剧,暴雨灾害发生的频率不断增大,导致了城市基础设施事故风险的增加。该文立足于暴雨对城市基建设施的影响,建立了暴雨灾害下城市基建设施的事故演化网络,同时引入复杂网络理论中的网络要素特征参数,分别对基建设施事故演化网络中的节点重要度和演化连接边脆弱性进行定量风险评估,并结合两者对演化网络中的不同演化路径进行风险分析。结果得到该城市基础设施事故演化网络中的关键节点和演化连接边,并综合辨识出该网络中的脆弱风险环节,从而为暴雨灾害下城市新老基建设施的风险防控提供参考建议。

With the intensification of urban heat island effect and greenhouse effect,rainstorm disaster has seriously harmed urban safety and increased the risk of new and old infrastructure accidents.Based on the impact of rainstorm on urban infrastructure facilities,this paper established the accident evolution network,and introduced the parameters of complex network systems to assess the node importance and the vulnerability of evolving edges in the infrastructure accident evolution network,also combined them to analyze the risk of different evolving paths.The results showed the key nodes and evolving connecting edges in this network,and synthetically identified the vulnerable risk links,so as to provide reference suggestions for the risk prevention and control of new and old urban infrastructure under rainstorm disaster.