基于熵权-TOPSIS模型的雷电灾害风险评价研究--以内蒙古自治区为例

Research on Lightning Hazard Risk Assessment Based on Entropy Weight-TOPSIS Model:A Case Study of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

根据自然灾害风险理论和雷电灾害风险区划技术指南,从致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性和脆弱性三个方面出发,构建了雷电灾害风险评价模型,并以5 km×5 km海量空间栅格数据为评价单元,运用熵权-TOPSIS方法和ArcGIS软件相结合,对内蒙古地区进行了雷电灾害风险评价并进行了等级划分。研究结果表明:高风险以上地区主要位于人口与GDP密度较高,同时地闪密度和强度等致灾因子较强的内蒙古中西部地区以及赤峰市、通辽市、乌兰浩特市、阿拉善左旗、锡林浩特市和海拉尔区等地区的城镇所在地,占内蒙古自治区面积的17.38%;雷电灾害风险中等地区主要为人口密度较低,但地闪密度与强度等致灾因子偏高的呼、包、鄂、乌城镇圈周围以及东北部阿鲁科尔沁旗、新巴尔虎左旗、巴林左旗、苏尼特右旗、扎赉特旗等地区,所占面积比例为23.65%;其他地区是雷电灾害低风险以下地区,如内蒙古西部阿拉善盟、东北部呼伦贝尔市北部以及锡林郭勒盟等,地广人稀且雷电灾害致灾因子的危险性最低的地区,上述地区占内蒙古面积的58.97%。最后,将评价结果与内蒙古地区2008—2018年历史雷电灾害事故进行对比验证可知,89.06%的雷电灾害事故处于雷电灾害风险中等以上地区。

According to the natural disaster risk theory and the technical guide of lightning disaster risk zoning,a lightning disaster risk evaluation model is constructed from three aspects:the risk of disaster causing factors,the exposure and vulnerability of disaster bearing body.The risk of lightning disaster is calculated with 5 km×5 km massive spatial grid data as the evaluation unit,the risk of lightning disaster in Inner Mongolia is evaluated and classified by using entropy weight TOPSIS method and ArcGIS software.The results show that the high-risk areas are mainly located in the central and western regions of Inner Mongolia with high population and GDP density and strong disaster causing factors such as lightning density and intensity,as well as the cities and towns of Chifeng City,Tongliao City,Ulanhot City,Alxa Left Banner,Xilinhot City and Hailar District,accounting for 17.38%of the area of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region;The areas with moderate lightning disaster risk are mainly around the urban circle of Hukou,Baotou,Hubei and Ukraine with low population density but high lightning density and intensity,as well as aruhorqin banner,new balhu Left Banner,Balinzuo banner,Sunit Right Banner,zalait banner and other areas in the northeast,accounting for 23.65%in area;Other areas are with low risk of lightning disasters,such as Alxa League in the west of Inner Mongolia,Hulunbuir city in the north of the northeast and XilinGol League.These areas are sparsely populated and have the lowest risk of lightning disaster causing factors,accounting for 58.97%of the area of Inner Mongolia.Finally,the evaluation results are compared with the historical lightning disaster accidents in Inner Mongolia from 2008 to 2018.It can be seen that 89.06%of lightning disaster accidents are in areas with medium lightning disaster risk.