中国省际农产品贸易的品类变迁、空间相关及影响因素研究

Research on the category change,spatial correlation and influencing factors of China’s inter-provincial agricultural product trade

采用2012—2020年中国31个省份24类农产品贸易数据,基于贸易变异率概括了省际农产品贸易的品类规模和结构变化特征,基于莫兰指数检验了省际农产品的贸易空间相关性,利用固定效应模型定量分析了中国省际农产品贸易的影响因素。结果表明:中国省际农产品贸易进口结构变异率显著高于出口结构变异率;省际农产品贸易的空间依赖和交互式影响日益增强;农林牧渔业总产值、农作物总播种面积、耕地平均机械拥有量、货运量、贸易开放度均对省际农产品贸易产生显著影响。基于研究结论,提出了增加对农业大省的农业补偿性财政转移,加大农业机械基础设施建设力度、推广数字机械化使用范围,提升省际贸易开放度、优化农产品生产区域布局,加强物流运输基础设施建设、提升生鲜农产品物流绩效,不断提升农产品附加值、增加农林牧渔的整体经济效益等对策建议。

Based on the trade data of 24 categories of agricultural products in 31 provinces in China from 2012 to 2020,this paper summarizes the category scale and structural change characteristics of inter-provincial agricultural products trade based on the trade variation rate,tests the spatial correlation of inter-provincial agricultural products trade based on the Moran index,and quantitatively analyzes the influencing factors of China’s inter-provincial agricultural products trade by using the fixed effect model.The results show that the variation rate of the import structure of China’s inter-provincial agricultural trade is significantly higher than that of the export structure;the spatial dependence and interactive influence of inter-provincial agricultural product trade are increasing;the total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,the total planted area of crops,the average machinery ownership of cultivated land,freight volume and trade openness all have a significant impact on the inter-provincial trade of agricultural products.Based on the research conclusions,this paper proposes increasing the agricultural compensatory financial transfer to major agricultural provinces,strengthening the construction of agricultural machinery infrastructure,promoting the use of digital mechanization,improving the openness of inter-provincial trade,optimizing the regional layout of agricultural products production,and strengthening the construction of logistics and transportation infrastructure,improving the logistics performance of fresh agricultural products,constantly improving the added value of agricultural products,and increasing the overall economic benefits of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery.