极端情况下电网遭受外部攻击的风险评估模型探索

Exploration of Risk Assessment Model for External Attacks on Power Grid Under Extreme Condition

提出一种用于评估极端情况下电网遭受外部攻击的暂态稳定风险的模型。该模型通过基于外部攻击特性的破坏能力过滤器来表征外部攻击的行为特点,通过基于电网防护能力的防御拦截器来表征电网的防护特性,通过用外部攻击行为作用在被攻击对象后在电网中表现出来的电网故障形态及其后果来定量计算暂态稳定风险。然后,根据提出的模型建立极端情况下电网可能遭受的网络攻击、电磁攻击、石墨炸弹攻击和暴恐袭击4种典型外部攻击时的风险评估指标的具体计算方法。最后,以某城市电网为算例,给出了极端情况下该城市电网遭受4种典型外部攻击时的暂态稳定风险评估结果。

A transient stability risk assessment model for the power grid under external attack in extreme cases is proposed in this paper.The model uses the the destructive ability filter based on external attack characteristics to represent the behavioral characteristics of external attacks and the defensive interceptors based on the power grid defense ability to characterize the defensive characteristics of the power grid.Through various forms of grid faults after the external attack behavior acts on the attacked object and the consequences,the model can quantitatively calculate transient stability risks.Then according to this model,the paper establishes detailed risk assessment index calculation methods for four typical external attack behaviors including cyber attacks,electromagnetic attacks,graphite bomb attacks and violent terrorist attacks.Finally,a city power grid is taken as an example to evaluate the transient stability risk assessment results of four typical external attacks on the power grid in extreme cases.