中美战略竞争背景下两岸电子信息产业链发展分析

An Analysis of the Development of Cross-Straits IT Industrial Chain in the Context of Sino-US Strategic Competition

两岸电子信息产业链是两岸产业链的重要组成部分,包含“两岸产业融合”和“三角贸易”两部分。基于全球价值链中出口增加值分解数据的估算结果表明,“两岸产业融合”比例在不断增长,“三角贸易”占比则不断下降。由于对欧美的市场依赖和技术依赖,两岸电子信息产业链具有一定脆弱性,易受中美战略竞争的影响。未来两岸电子信息产业链的总体发展存在不确定性,但在结构上呈现出“两岸产业融合”程度提升、部分“三角贸易”向东南亚国家参与其中的“四角贸易”模式转化的趋势。

The IT industry chain is an important component of the cross-Straits industrial chains, which can be divided into “industrial integration” and “triangular trade”.Using the value-added export data from the perspective of global value chains, this paper shows that the industrial integration part is on the rise while the triangular trade part is declining. Due to its dependence on European and American markets and technologies, the cross-Straits IT industrial chain is vulnerable to the impact of Sino-US strategic competition. In the future, there will be uncertainty in the overall development of the cross-Straits IT industrial chain. In terms of the economic structure, however, there is an emerging trend of increased industrial integration, and to a certain extent, the shift from the “triangular trade” to the “four corner trade” with the involvement of Southeast Asian countries.