“脱钩”还是融合?两岸经济关系发展的基本逻辑与演进趋向

Decoupling or Integration? The Underlying Rationale and Developmental Trends of Cross-Straits Economic Relations

两岸经济关系的发展以台商投资为先导力量,以两岸贸易为派生活动,由大陆特定时空的要素禀赋和制度环境所支持,受全球价值链分工格局及其权力结构制约,以两岸经济体对于全球价值链的协同参与和深度嵌入为主要内容。在中美战略竞争加剧进而中美经济“脱钩”政策冲击下,两岸经济关系存在从“融合”移向“脱钩”的一定风险。未来两岸经济关系发展的演进趋向,将取决于美国的战略竞争和打压态势、台湾岛内的再工业化潜能、其他竞争性区域的产业接纳能力、中国大陆新发展格局的构建成效以及主导区域经济一体化的能力等多方面因素。

There is an underlying rationale for the development of cross-Straits economic relations: With Taiwan investment as the leading force, followed by the cross-Straits trade, the development is facilitated by the mainland’s specific factor endowments and institutional environments. While this development is restricted by the global value chain division and power structure, it also entails the collaborative participation and deepening integration of cross-Straits economies into the global value chain. In the context of Sino-US strategic competition, there is a certain risk that the cross-Straits economic relations would shift from integration to decoupling. The future developmental trends of cross-Straits economic relations depend on many factors, including the US competition and containment, the re-industrialization potential in Taiwan, the industrial acceptance capacity of other competitive economies, the outcome of the New-Development-Pattern in the mainland, and China’s lead in the regional economic integration.