考虑信息搜索的环境污染群体性事件最优决策模型

Optimal Decision-making Model of Environmental Pollution Group Events Considering Information Search

坚决打好污染防治攻坚战是建设全面小康社会三大任务之一,环境污染群体性事件影响社会稳定和生态文明建设。在当今信息渠道多元化的自媒体时代下,群众能够通过信息搜索行为为决策获取信息。本文考虑了群众信息搜索行为,构建周边居民信息搜索的环境污染群体性事件最优决策模型,分析了不同条件下均衡策略选择,以及在各种地方政府补贴水平和暗箱操作程度下,周边居民的收益变化情况和策略选择差异。结果表明:当政府的暗箱操作程度较低时,群众的最优化策略为信息搜索后“污染轻微”则“抗议”,否则群众的最优化策略为直接抗议。当群众对项目污染程度为严重的先验概率较低且政府的暗箱操作程度比较高时,群众将选择不抗议策略。当周边居民的识别能力较差,群众将会选择策略信息搜索后“污染轻微”则“不抗议”,当暗箱操作程度足够大时,群众将会选择策略直接抗议。随着地方政府提供补贴水平的增加,群众的抗议强度减弱。了解群众的最优决策,有利于政府对环境群体性事件进行防范和应对,维护社会稳定。

With the advent of “user-operated media” era, how governments deal with the social crisis is a serious challenge. Environmental pollution group event is a prominent type of social crisis, generally known as “Not-In-My-Back-Yard”. As the information dominant party, the government fully understands the possible impact of the project on the local residents, but maybe block the key information for the implementation, which can lead to serious information asymmetry. Once the information is leaked, the environmental group events will break out likely. With the rapid development of information technology, especially the rise of user-operated-media communication, information channels become increasingly diversified. Facing the information asymmetry, the local residents can be easy to search, browse and acquire relevant knowledge. The search results will have an important impact on the occurrence and development of environmental group events.The optimal decision-making process of local residents is studied in the context of information search. Facing an engineering project with some degree environmental pollution, the local residents have three alternative strategies {No protest;Protest;Search information and decide}. According to the inverse method of dynamic optimal decision making, comparing the expected utilities of different decision-makings, the optimal strategy of the local residents under different conditions can be found out.(1) When the cost of information search for the masses and the probability of the heavily polluted project are high, and the additional loss of the masses taking protests when the project is slightly polluted is low, the optimal decision of the local residents is “immediate protest”.(2) When the cost of information search is low, the probability of the polluted project and the additional loss of the masses taking protests when the project is slightly polluted are high, the optimal strategy of the local residents is “information search”, to protest when the project is heavily polluted, otherwise not protest.(3) When the information search cost is low, if the other conditions are reverse, the local residents search information firstly, and then choose the strategy of “No protest” for the slight polluted project but shown as heavy pollution, and protest for the polluted project shown as light pollution.(4) When the probability of the seriously polluted project is low and the level of the government’s black box operation is high, the public will choose the strategy of “no protest”.Emergency events have certain special characteristics, so it is difficult to obtain the statistical data of such events. The numerical analysis method is used to describe the impact of government subsidies and the degree of black box operation on decision-making. How to correctly handle the relationship between economy development of local government and environmental protection of local residents by using the decision optimization model is an important part of the government’s prevention and response to environmental group events. Understanding the optimal decision-making of the masses is conducive to the government’s prevention and response to environmental mass incidents, and thus maintaining social stability.