品牌危机中网络从众情景表征对危机信息分享行为拉动效应影响研究

Research of Pull Effect of Conformity Context Representation on Information Sharing Behavior in Brand Crisis

网络媒体的广泛使用及其信息碎片化等特征,使得品牌危机出现后用户对危机信息的分享行为存在明显从众效应。为了掌握品牌危机信息分享行为的从众因素及其作用机理,并制定有效的监控防范策略,本文基于拉动效应视角对网络空间中从众情景表征与品牌危机信息分享行为的脉冲响应及边际影响进行研究。以国内发展较为成熟的新浪微博作为网络平台研究样本,选取了2010年至2019年间所发生的具有较大影响力的66个涵盖食品、药品等七个行业品牌的危机事件作为品牌危机信息来源,运用官方API及网络爬虫法进行数据采集,获得关于转发总数、评论总数及转发量和评论量维度上的有效数据376492组。采用向量自回归(VAR)及状态空间模型(Sspace)对从众情景表征与品牌危机信息分享行为之间脉冲响应及边际影响进行分析。研究发现:(1)网络空间中从众情景表征与信息分享行为存在的显著正向因果关系;(2)从众情景表征对评论行为较之对转发行为的滞后影响更为明显,但对转发行为的滞后性较长,即存在长尾效应;(3)信息转发总数较之于评论总数对用户的转发行为的影响力更大,信息评论总数较之于转发总数对用户的评论行为的影响力更大,即用户对同类行为的从众具有同类效应;(4)不同领域间及不同年份间的品牌危机信息分享行为的情景从众效应存在结构性差异。通过模型建构与分析,表明品牌危机中网络从众情景表征对危机信息分享行为具有长尾波动效应,这可为网络用户从众行为的判别、分类及应对提供理论基础,从而防范从众情景表征促进转发及评论分享行为而导致危机信息的迅速扩散和舆情风险形成。

Owing to the extensive use of online media and the fragmentation of its information and its other characteristics, crisis information has been sharing widely under the influence of herd effect after the brand crisis appears. In order to grasp the herd effect factors and action mechanism of brand crisis information sharing behavior, and formulate relatively effective monitoring and prevention measure, the impulse response and marginal impact of conformity situation representation and brand crisis information sharing behavior in cyberspace is studied in the paper. Sina Weibo in China is taken as the online platform research sample, 66 crisis events covering brands of seven industries such as food and medicine, which occurred between 2010 and 2019, are selected as the source of brand crisis information, and the official API and web crawler method are used for data collection to obtain 376492 combination of valid data on the total number of reposts, comments, and the number of reposts and comments. Vector autoregression(VAR) and state space model(Sspace) are used to analyze the impulse response and marginal impact between conformity situation representation and brand crisis information sharing behavior. It is found that:(1) There is significant positive causal relationship between conformity situation representation and information sharing behavior in cyberspace;(2) More obvious lagging effect is exerted by conformity situation representation on comment behavior than on reposting behavior, but there is a long lag period on reposting behavior, that is, there is a long tail effect;(3) Greater influence is exerted by the total number of information reposts than by the total number of comments on the user’s reposting behavior, greater influence is exerted by the total number of information comments than by the total number of reposts on the user’s commenting behavior, that is, there is greater herd effect between similar behavior;(4)There are structural differences in the herd effects of brand crisis information sharing behaviors among different fields and among different years.Through model construction and analysis, it is shown that the network conformity situation representation in the brand crisis has a long-tailed volatility effect on the crisis information sharing behavior, which can provide a theoretical basis for the discrimination, classification and handling of the network user’s conformity behavior, thus preventing the conformity situation representation from promoting repost and comment behavior which can lead to the rapid spread of crisis information and the formation of public opinion risks.