近代中国工业化的渐变与突变

Gradual Change and Sudden Change of Modern China’s Industrialization

有关近代中国工业化历程的关键点,无论是从时空演变还是长时段估值或分段考察的研究均存在模糊不实之处,原因主要在于各方所讨论的时间、空间、逻辑并不对等,这是由于中国地理范围广大、近代时期时间跨度较长且属于后发追赶型国家之所致。对标全球工业化演进的三个阶段及其表现,从空间和时间二个维度解析近代中国工业化,从中可以发现近代中国工业化历程的关键在于“变化”的方向和力度。在全球工业化三重浪潮的经验示范和国际竞争中,近代中国能否及时有效地实现合适的工业化渐变和突变,并形成具体可行的方案,有效地加入全球工业竞争并实现赶超,成为衡量近代中国工业化成效的一个新标尺。

The research on the key points in the process of modern China’s industrialization, whether from the evolution of time and space, or the long-term valuation or sectional investigation, is ambiguous. The main reason is that the time, space and logic discussed by all parties are not equal. In addition, China has a wide geographical range and a long time span in modern times, and is a late catching up country. Based on the three stages of the evolution of global industrialization and their manifestations, this paper analyzes modern China’s industrialization from the two dimensions of space and time, from which we can find that the key to the process of modern China’s industrialization lies in the direction and intensity of “change”. In the experience demonstration and international competition of the triple wave of global industrialization, whether modern China’s industrialization can realize the appropriate gradual change and mutation in time and effectively, form a specific and feasible scheme, effectively join the global industrial competition and achieve catch-up has become a new yardstick to measure the effectiveness of modern China’s industrialization.