中国北方地区生态环境质量时空变化及其对气候变化与人类活动的响应

Spatio-temporal evolution of eco-environment quality and the response to climate change and human activities in northern China

中国北方地区地域辽阔,干旱面积分布较广,风沙危害、水土流失等问题严重,是典型的气候敏感区及生态环境脆弱区。然而,该区域近几十年来生态环境质量演变及其对气候变化与人类活动响应的规律还不清晰,研究这些规律对加强北方地区生态文明建设及维护生物多样性具有重要意义。本文基于中国历史高分辨率生态环境质量数据(CHEQ),以及气候指标、夜间灯光等遥感数据,利用趋势分析、变异系数、偏相关分析、多元回归分析、重标极差分析等方法,探究了北方地区2001—2018年生态环境质量时空变化特征及其对气候变化与人类活动的响应。结果表明:(1)2001—2018年CHEQ指数总体呈小幅下降趋势,空间上呈东高西低、南北高中部低的分布特征;(2)近18年来,北方地区生态环境质量改善的区域仅为18.66%,而退化面积比例为40%;(3)生态环境质量与气温和人类活动呈显著负相关关系(P<0.05),而与降水呈显著正相关关系(P<0.05);(4)气候变化对生态环境质量变化起主导作用的区域占研究区面积的90%。本文在弥补现有研究不足的同时,可以为快速掌握北方地区绿色经济发展下生态环境质量的变化规律和提高生态文明建设的效果提供科学依据,为“绿水青山就是金山银山”的科学政策提供理论支撑。

The northern China that is a typical climate change sensitive area in China has a vast territory, complex and diverse landforms, a wide distribution of arid areas, and also serious problems such as wind and sand hazards and soil erosion. However, the laws governing the evolution of eco-environmental quality(EEQ) and its response to climate change and human activities in northern China in recent decades are still unclear. Understanding these laws is of great significance to further strengthening the ecological civilization construction and maintaining biodiversity in northern China. Based on CHEQ and other remote sensing data such as climate indicators and nighttime light data, using trend analysis, coefficient of variation, partial correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, re-standard range analysis, this study explores the characteristics of the temporal and spatial changes of the EEQ in northern China from 2001 to 2018 and its response to climate change and human activities. The results show that:(1)The CHEQ index in northern China from 2001 to 2018 shows a slight downward trend, with a spatial distribution characteristic of “high in the east and low in the west, high in the north and south, and low in the middle in the north”;(2)In the past 18 years, only 18.66% of the areas where the EEQ has been improved in northern China, while degraded areas accounted for more than 40% of the total area;(3)The EEQ has a significant negative correlation with temperature and human activities(P<0.05), and a significant positive correlation with precipitation(P<0.05);(4)The area where climate change plays a leading role in the change of EEQ has reached 90% of the study area. While making up for the deficiencies of existing research, this study can provide a scientific basis for quickly grasping the changing laws of the EEQ under the development of green economy in northern China and improving the effect of ecological civilization construction, and provide theoretical support for the scientific policy of “Lucid waters and lush mountains”.