数字经济发展对我国省际贸易的影响:理论逻辑与实证检验

The Impact of Digital-economy Development on the Inter-provincial Trade in China:The Theoretical Logic and Empirical Test

贸易成本和技术创新是影响贸易行为的核心要素。从数字经济影响省际贸易的理论机制看,数字经济依托互联网、人工智能、大数据等信息技术,打破了时间和空间上的限制,增强了信息的有效性和要素的匹配效率,有助于降低贸易成本和推动知识溢出进而促进地区间的贸易往来。实证检验结果表明:数字经济发展能够显著促进本省省际贸易流出;数字经济对省际贸易的促进作用存在明显的结构异质性:省际贸易流出的增加主要是由本省数字经济发展带来的贸易成本下降和知识溢出引致的,且降低贸易成本的机制更为明显;而数字经济发展会对邻近省份贸易流出产生负向空间溢出效应。

Trade costs and technological innovation are the core elements affecting trade behaviors.From the perspective of the theoretical mechanism by which the digital economy affects inter-provincial trade, the digital economy relies on the Internet, artificial intelligence, big data and other information technologies to break the time and space constraints, enhance the effectiveness of information and the matching efficiency of elements, and help reduce trade costs and promote knowledge spillover to promote inter-provincial trade.The empirical test results show that: First, the development of digital economy can significantly promote inter-provincial trade outflow in the province.Second, there is a significant structural heterogeneity in the promotion effect of digital economy on inter-provincial trade.Third, the increase of inter-provincial trade outflow is mainly caused by the decrease of trade costs and knowledge spillover brought by the development of digital economy in the province, and the mechanism of reducing trade costs is more obvious.Fourth, the development of inter-provincial trade in neighboring provinces can promote the trade outflow of the province, while the development of its digital economy will have a negative spatial spillover effect on the trade outflow of the province.