“一带一路”沿线国家风险、双边投资协定与中国OFDI区位选择——基于PLS-PM与BP神经网络模型的实证研究

Country Risks Along the Belt and Roadties and China,Bilateral Investment Trea’s OFDI Location Choice--Empirical Study Based on PLS-PM and BP Neural Network Model

构建包含政治军事风险、经济金融风险和社会文化风险的“一带一路”沿线国家风险指标体系,采用偏最小二乘通径模型和BP神经网络技术实现了风险测度与预警。基于2014—2019年“一带一路”沿线49个国家数据,建立扩展的投资引力模型,运用动态面板系统GMM估计,实证分析东道国风险、BIT对中国OFDI区位选择的影响。研究发现:总体上看,中国OFDI主要流向了风险较高的国家,在政治军事和社会文化维度表现为风险偏好,而在经济金融维度上风险规避的特征明显。非商业趋向和非市场动机使得中国OFDI能够包容一定的国家风险。签订BIT可以促进中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的OFDI,在中低收入国家对投资者的保护作用更强。此外,中国OFDI的区位选择存在“异质性偏好”,中低收入国家风险对中国OFDI的影响程度显著高于高收入国家,不同收入水平国家的市场规模、资源禀赋、技术和税负对中国OFDI的影响也有所不同。

The risk index system of countries along the Belt and Road including political and military risks,economic and financial risks and social and cultural risks was constructed,and the partial least squares path model and BP neural network technology were used to realize risk measurement and early warning.Based on the data of 49 countries along the Belt and Road from 2014 to 2019,an extended investment gravity model was established,and the dynamic panel system GMM estimation was used to empirically analyze the impact of host country risk and BIT on China’s OFDI location choice.The results indicates that on the whole,China’s OFDI mainly flows to countries with higher risks,which shows risk preference in political,military and social and cultural dimensions,while risk aversion in economic and financial dimensions is obvious.Non-commercial tendency and non-market motivation enable China’s OFDI to tolerate certain country risks.Signing BIT can promote China’s OFDI to countries along the Belt and Road,and has a stronger protective effect on investors in low and middle income countries.Additionally,there is“heterogeneity preference”in China’s OFDI location choice.The impact of risks in low and middle income countries on China’s OFDI is significantly higher than that of high income countries.The market size,resource endowment,technology and tax burden of countries with different income levels also have different impacts on China’s OFDI.