市值分化视角下金融科技对商业银行风险承担水平的影响--基于面板门限回归模型的实证分析

The Impact of Financial Technology on Commercial Banks'Risk-Taking Level From the Perspective of Market Value Differentiation:An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Threshold Regression Model

上市商业银行出现了市值分化现象与商业银行运用金融科技实现经营转型的进程密切相关。基于中国上市商业银行股票收益率数据,测算金融市场隐含(Market implied)的商业银行风险承担水平,并以商业银行年报为文本分析对象,使用面板门限回归模型,以商业银行市值作为门限变量,以金融科技发展水平作为响应变量进行实证分析,结论表明:对于中国上市商业银行,市值越高,其运用金融科技增加风险承担水平的动机越强烈;而金融科技并没有增加市值较低商业银行的风险承担水平。其主要原因是商业银行市值表示的是市场化的偿付能力,市值越高的商业银行,风险承担能力越强,越有动机和能力来运用最新的金融科技来增加业务的风险水平,进而增加盈利的可能性。

The market value of China's listed commercial banks has appeared market value differentiation phenomenon,this paper believes that this is closely related to the process of commercial banks using financial technology to achieve business transformation.The market value of commercial banks represents the comprehensive competitiveness of commercial banks.This paper uses the stock trading data of China's listed commercial banks to measure the risk-taking level of the market-implied commercial banks.With the annual report of commercial banks as the text analysis object,the occurrence frequency of fintech-related words obtained from statistics is taken as the variable representing the development state of commercial banks'fintech.Then,using the threshold panel regression model,this paper makes an empirical analysis with the market value of commercial banks as the threshold variable and the level of fintech development as the response variable.The conclusion shows that the higher the market value of China's listed commercial banks,the stronger the motiva-tion of using fintech to increase their risk-taking level,and fintech has not increased the level of risk-taking of commercial banks with lower market capitalization.This paper holds that the main reason is that the market value of commercial banks indicates the market-based solvency,so the higher the market value of commercial banks is,the stronger the risk-taking ability is,and the more motivated and able they are to use the latest financial technology to increase the risk level of business,and then increase the possibility of profitability.