济南市2013—2020年其他感染性腹泻病流行特征及时空聚集性分析

Epidemic characteristics and temporal-spatial clustering of other infectious diarrhea in Jinan City,2013-2020

目的对2013—2020年济南市其他感染性腹泻病的流行病学和时空聚集性进行分析,为防控工作提供科学依据。方法从中国疾病预防控制信息系统中的传染病监测系统中获取济南市2013—2020年其他感染性腹泻病资料,采用描述性流行病学方法及时空重排扫描统计方法分析其他感染性腹泻病的流行特征和时空分布特征。结果2013—2020年济南市累计报告其他感染性腹泻病72033例,年均发病率119.19/10万。病例集中在<5岁年龄组,占报告病例总数的42.74%。人群以散居儿童为主,占41.69%。男女性别比1.21∶1,男性发病率高于女性,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=432.25,P<0.001)。全年出现夏季和冬季2个发病高峰。平阴县、天桥区、槐荫区、历下区和历城区是主要高发地区。全局自相关分析各年全局Moran’s I值均为正值,范围为0.039-0.235。时空聚集性分析共探测到5个时空聚集区(1个一类聚集区,4个二类聚集区),具有显著时空聚集性。结论2013—2020年济南市其他感染性腹泻病流行水平呈逐年上升的趋势,存在时空聚集性,根据时空分布及流行病学特征,应加强病原学监测,在高发地区重点人群中开展宣传教育等防控措施。

Objective To analyze the epidemiology and temporal-spatial clustering of other infectious diarrhea in Jinan City from 2013 to 2020,and to provide a scientific basis for prevention and control work.Methods The data about other infectious diarrhea diseases in Jinan City during 2013-2020 were downloaded from the Monitoring System for Infectious Diseases in Chinese Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.And descriptive epidemiological methods and spatiotemporal rearrangement scanning statistical methods were used to analyze the epidemic and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of other infectious diarrhea diseases.Results A total of 72,033 cases were accumulatively reported in Jinan City from 2013 to 2020,with an average annual incidence of 119.19/100,000.Children under five accounted for 42.74%of the total reported cases.Most of the cases were scattered children,accounting for 41.69%.The male-female ratio was 1.21:1.The incidence rate was higher in males than in females,showing a statistically significant difference(χ^(2)=432.25,P<0.001).There were two incidence peaks in spring and winter in each year.Pingyin County,Tianqiao District,Huaiyin District,Lixia District and Licheng District were the main high incidence areas.Other infectious diarrhea showed positive spatial autocorrelation at the county level with higher Moran’s I from0.039 to 0.235.Spatio-temporal clustering analysis revealed that five space-time clusters were detected(including one first-class cluster and four second-class clusters),with significant spatial and temporal clustering.Conclusion From 2013 to 2020,the epidemic level of other infectious diarrhea diseases in Jinan City showed an upward trend year by year,with significant temporal and spatial aggregation.According to the spatial and temporal distribution and epidemiological characteristics,etiological surveillance should be strengthened,and prevention and control measures such as publicity and education should be carried out among key populations in high incidence areas.