新疆农业流动人口市民化意愿及其动力机制研究——基于分层线性模型的实证研究

Study on the Citizenization Willingness of Xinjiang Agricultural Migrants and Its Dynamic Mechanism——An Empirical Study Based on Hierarchical Linear Model

高质量发展阶段人口市民化是推进“以人为核心”的新型城镇化的关键。农牧民流动人口市民化是推动新疆新型城镇化的核心,也是维护新疆社会稳定与长治久安的重要途径。文章以2018年新疆农业流动人口为研究对象,利用分层线性模型从微观、中观、宏观及制度层面对市民化动力机制进行分析。结果发现:农业流动人口市民化意愿在性别上无差异,在年龄上青年更倾向于留在城市,受教育程度的提高会提升市民化意愿,地区经济发展水平高会增加流动人口收入并促使其留在城市,此外流动范围小、拥有社保等对市民化意愿也有促进作用;老家有宅基地、高端服务业发展及非私营单位就业人数与市民化意愿存在负相关关系,失业保险覆盖率无显著影响。据此,文章提出加大培训力度、发展生产性服务业、增强经济发展活力以及完善公共服务体系等政策建议。

In the stage of high-quality development,the citizenization of population is the key to promote the“people-centered”ur-banization.The citizenization of the migrant farmers and herdsmen is not only the core of promoting the new urbanization in Xinji-ang,but also an important way to maintain social stability and long-term stability in Xinjiang.Taking the agricultural migrants inXinjiang in 2018 as the research object,this paper uses the hierarchical linear model to analyze its dynamic mechanism of citizeni-zation from the micro,meso,macro and institutional levels.The results are as follows.There is no gender difference in the citizeni-zation willingness of agricultural migrants;compared with older generation,young people are more inclined to stay in cities;the im-provement of education will enhance the citizenization willingness;Areas with high economic development level and income in-crease can also drive the migrant workers to stay in cities.In addition,small mobility range and possession of social security alsopromote the citizenization willingness.There is a negative correlation between in willingness of citizenization,migrant workers whohave the homestead,work in high-end service industry and non-private corporations have low willingness of citizenization.Howev-er,there is no significant impact on the coverage of unemployment insurance.Therefore,this paper puts forward some policy sugges-tions such as strengthening skill training of the migrant workers,developing producer services,enhancing the vitality of economicdevelopment and improving the public service system.