基于地理探测器的山东省土地城镇化时空演变及驱动因素

Spatial-temporal Evolution of Land Urbanization and Its Driving Factors in Shandong Province Based on Geographic Detector Model

基于遥感监测、社会统计等多源数据,运用空间自相关分析和地理探测器模型分析2000—2020年山东省土地城镇化时空格局演变及驱动因素。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年,山东省土地城镇化水平整体不断提高,高水平区集中分布于各地市的市区,较低及以下水平县区趋于沂蒙山区、半岛丘陵地区和黄河三角洲沿海地区集中分布。(2)2000—2020年,山东省土地城镇化具有明显的空间关联性,空间集聚特征显著,高值集聚区不断扩展,低值集聚区持续收缩。(3)山东土地城镇化水平受地理区位、人口规模、经济发展水平、政府调控能力、工业发展水平、开放水平等因素的共同影响,驱动因子协同效应呈现双因子增强和非线性增强效应。

Based on the multi-source data such as remote sensing images and socioeconomic statistics data,this paper used the methods of spatial autocorrelation analysis and geographical detector model to explore the spatial-temporal evolution of land urbanization and its driving factors in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2020.The results showed that:(1)The overall land urbanization level of Shandong Province had been continuously improved from 2000 to 2020.The high level areas were concentrated in urban districts,while counties in the lowest and lower level areas were tend to be concentrated in Yimeng Mountainous areas,peninsula hilly areas and coastal areas of the Yellow River Delta.(2)From 2000 to 2020,the distribution of land urbanization was characterized by obvious spatial correlation with significant spatial agglomeration characteristics in Shandong Province.High value cluster areas tended to expand,which were shifting to urban districts of Jinan.Low value cluster areas continued to shrink,and tended to be concentrated in Yimeng mountainous areas and peninsula hilly areas.(3)The spatial-temporal evolution of land urbanization was influenced by geographical location,population scale,economic development level,government regulation ability,industrial development level and opening up level.The interaction of driving factors had significant two-factor enhancement effect and non-liner enhancement effect on the spatial-temporal differentiation of land urbanization.