新疆农业面源污染的时空分异及动态演进——基于特色畜牧视角的再分析

Spatial-temporal Differentiation and Dynamic Evolution of Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution in Xinjiang——Reanalysis Based on the Perspective of Characteristic Animal Husbandry

农业面源污染问题已成为新疆维吾尔自治区新时代高水平农业现代化建设和如期实现“碳达峰”“碳中和”双重目标的重要障碍。利用新疆14个地州市2000—2019年的面板数据,运用引入新疆特色养殖核算单元的清单分析法对农业面源污染排放量及排放强度进行测算,并借助Dagum基尼系数分解和非参数估计综合分析新疆农业面源污染的空间差异及其动态演进。结果表明:(1)新疆农业面源污染排放强度呈曲折下降态势,北疆污染物排放量最高,南疆次之,东疆最少,同时空间差异明显;新疆农业面源污染排放强度由南北两端向中心阶梯式递减,治理效果沿着天山山脉,由中心向南北两端逐渐凸显。(2)污染物排放强度总体基尼系数主要呈现“N”形变化趋势,地区内差异是总体差异的最主要来源,其次是超变密度,地区间差异对总体差异的贡献最小。(3)新疆农业面源污染总体核密度分布曲线随时间推移整体呈现小幅度左移趋势,污染物排放强度离散程度呈减弱趋势;分布曲线存在显著的右拖尾现象,但延展性有所差异;新疆总体和各地区农业面源污染强度的发展存在两级或多级分化的现象。

Xinjiang′s agricultural surface pollution has become an important obstacle to the construction of high-level agricultural modernization in the new era,and to achieve the dual goals of“carbon peaking”and“carbon neutrality”as scheduled.Used panel data of 14 prefectures in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2019,this paper measured agricultural surface source pollution emissions and emission intensity using the inventory analysis method with the introduction of Xinjiang′s special farming accounting unit.The results showed that:(1)The emission intensity of agricultural surface source pollution in Xinjiang showed a zigzag decreasing trend during the observation period.The highest pollutant emission was in the North,followed by the South and the least in the East.Meanwhile,the spatial differences were obvious.The emission intensity of agricultural surface source pollution in Xinjiang decreased in a stepwise manner from the North and South to the Center,and the treatment effect was gradually accentuated from the center to the North and South along the Tianshan Mountains.(2)The overall Gini coefficient of pollutant emission intensity during the observation period mainly showed an“N-shaped”trend.The intra-regional variation was the most important source of the overall variation,followed by the super-variable density,and the inter-regional variation contributed the least to the overall variation.(3)The overall Kernel density distribution curve in Xinjiang showed a small leftward shift over time.The dispersion of pollutant emission intensity showed a weakening trend.There was a significant right trailing phenomenon in the distribution curve,but the extension was different.The development of agricultural surface source pollution intensity in Xinjiang as a whole and in each region showed two or more levels of differentiation.