气候变化对粮食生产风险的影响研究进展

Advances in the study of climate change impact on crop producing risk

气候变化对粮食生产风险的影响研究是传统粮食生产灾害风险研究在气候变化框架的延伸,亦是气候变化粮食生产影响研究向风险领域的拓展,系典型的领域交叉问题,对防范未来气候变化引发的粮食安全风险、构建全球粮食系统韧性具有重要意义。本文综述了气候变化影响区域单产风险以及多区域同步歉收风险的研究进展,从气候平均值、波动和极端值变化以及大尺度环异常的角度总结了其中的影响机制,评述了当前研究方法的进展与不足。在此基础上,提出了今后应着重加强研究的问题:(1)进一步明晰气候变化改变单产风险的机理,改善作物模型对单产年际变率和极端低产的模拟能力,特别是对单一和复合极端天气气候事件造成减产的捕捉能力。(2)推动时空相依风险的建模与随机模拟能力,改进对气候变化下多作物-多区域同步歉收风险变化的认识。(3)加强对气候变化下全球粮食生产风险变化的系统性认识,揭示全球和区域、历史时期和未来不同气候变化情景下的规律与格局,在以“止损”为核心的气候变化适应对策基础上,加快研究以“调峰”为核心的气候变化粮食生产风险防范对策。

Study on the impact of climate change on crop producing is an extension of the classic studies on natural disaster induced crop producing risk to the area of climate change,as well as an extension of climate change impact on crop yield to the risk domain,a typical interdisciplinary field. It is important for risk governance of future food insecurity induced by climate change and adaptation strategies fostering global food resilience. This study reviews the advances in the study of impact of climate change on regional crop yield risk and multi-breadbaskets synchronized failure risk. The impact driver is summarized from the aspects of changes in climate mean,variability,and extremes,and changes in climate oscillation. Progresses and challenges in methodology are summarized,and perspective for future research are supplied:(1)Figure out further the driver of climate change impact on yield risk,and improve the skills of process-based crop models in reproducing the yield variability,especially in capturing the yield loss due to single or compound climate extremes.(2)Promote the modelling and simulation capability of spatiotemporal dependent risks,and improve our understanding of multi-crop-multi-region synchronized failure.(3)Reveal global crop producing risk landscape under climate change systematically by uncovering the spatiotemporal pattern of regional and global crop producing risk changes in the past and the future. And finally derive mean-increasing and variance-reducing adaptation strategies to face the challenge of future climate change.