基于灰色GM(1,1)的贵州物流需求“十四五”预测分析

"Fourteenth Five-Year"Forecast Analysis of Guizhou Province's Logistics Demand Based on Grey GM(1,1)

为研究贵州省“十四五”期间(2021—2025年)物流需求状况,根据贵州省2011—2020年货运周转量数据,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型对贵州省“十四五”期间的物流需求量进行预测。预测结果表明,贵州省物流需求量呈上升趋势。相关部门应抓住机遇,积极适应新形势、新变化,培养物流专业人才,整合物流网络,推动数字化、智慧化物流建设,以及实现物流可持续发展等。以上建议可以为相关物流部门在“十四五”期间制定物流产业政策、优化物流资源配置、推动建设现代化物流提供决策依据。

To study the logistics demand of Guizhou Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan period(2021—2025),according to the freight turnover data of Guizhou Province from 2011 to 2020,this paper uses the grey GM(1,1)model to predict the logistics demand of Guizhou Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.The forecast results show that the logistics demand of Guizhou Province is on the rise during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.Relevant departments should seize the opportunity,actively adapt to the new situation and new changes,cultivate logistics professionals,integrate logistics networks,promote the construction of digital and intelligent logistics,and realize the logistics sustainable development and so on.The above snggestions can decision-making basis for logistics-related departments to formulate logistics industry policies,optimize the allocation of logistics resources,and promote the construction of modern logistics during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.