中国西部地区水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调度的时空特征

Research on the coupling coordination of water-energy-food system and its temporal and spatial characteristics

在2005~2018年中国西部地区水-能源-粮食系统综合发展评价的基础上,运用耦合协调度模型和地理加权回归模型对水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调度的时空特征及其影响因素进行实证研究.结果表明:(1)中国西部水-能源-粮食系统及其各子系统的综合发展指数总体呈波动上升趋势,其中,水资源和能源子系统在2011年后长期滞后于粮食子系统,成为西部地区水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调发展的短板.(2)2005~2018年,中国西部水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调度从勉强耦合协调进入初级耦合协调阶段,且耦合协调度呈现“南高北低”的时空特征.(3)居民消费水平和人口规模对甘肃、内蒙古等西北地区的系统耦合协调度具有正向影响,对重庆、云南等西南地区具有负向影响,影响程度在地理空间上均呈现出“北正南负”的空间特征;地方财政环保投入的影响程度从北到南逐渐增大,广西、贵州、四川、陕西的系统耦合协调度受该因素的影响最大;R&D投入强度对系统耦合协调的推动作用相对较小,影响程度呈现“北高南低”的空间特征.基于上述分析结果,提出了多资源系统联合发展视角下的区域资源管理方式,减少对有限资源间的依赖性,改善人口规模及环保科技投入等因素,构建具有西部区域特色、体现资源优势、富有竞争力的水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调发展策略.

Based on the comprehensive development evaluation of water-energy-food system in western China from 2005 to 2018,the spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of the coupling coordination degree of water-energy-food system are empirically studied by using the coupling coordination degree model and geographical weighted regression model.The results show that:(1)The overall development index of the water-energy-food system and its subsystems in western China shows a fluctuating upward trend.Among them,the water and energy subsystems lagged behind the food subsystem for a long time after 2011,becoming the shortcomings of the coupled and coordinated development of the water-energy-food system in the western region.(2)From 2005 to 2018,the coupling coordination degree of water-energy-food system in western China has entered the primary coupling coordination stage from barely coupling coordination,and the coupling coordination degree shows the spatial and temporal characteristics of"high in the south and low in the north".(3)The level of population consumption and population size have a positive influence on the system coupling coordination in northwest China,such as Gansu and Inner Mongolia,and a negative influence on southwest China,such as Chongqing and Yunnan,with the spatial characteristics of"positive in the north and negative in the south".The degree of influence of local financial investment in environmental protection gradually increases from north to south,and the system coupling coordination degree of Guangxi,Guizhou,Sichuan and Shaanxi is most influenced by this factor.The spatial characteristics of"high in the north and low in the south"are shown in the degree of influence of R&D investment on the system coupling coordination.Based on the results of the above analysis,the study proposes a regional resource management approach under the perspective of joint development of multiple resource systems to reduce the dependence on limited resources among them.Factors such as population size and investment in environmental protection science and technology are improved to build a coordinated development strategy of coupled water-energy-food system with western regional characteristics,reflecting resource advantages and being competitive.