基于系统动力学的城市内涝灾害应急管理模型

Emergency management model of urban waterlogging disaster based on system dynamics

采用系统动力学(SD)方法建立城市内涝灾害应急管理SD模型。在确定模型变量权重的基础上,通过构建模型方程式并绘制内涝灾害因果回路图和存量流量图实现对事件动态模拟仿真和敏感性分析。将构建的SD模型用于西安市一场典型内涝灾害事件的仿真分析,结果表明:随着时间增长,通过模拟仿真增加对技术因素、社会因素、管理因素和自然因素的管控,城市内涝灾害应急管理效果趋于变好;SD模型中不同变量对城市内涝灾害应急管理影响存在差异,需要不断完善应急预案,加强城市排水管网建设,提高应急决策时效性。

The system dynamics(SD)model of urban waterlogging emergency management is established by using the method of SD.On the basis of determining the weight of the model variables,the dynamic simulation and sensitivity analysis of the event are realized by building the model equation and drawing the causal circuit diagram and the stock flow diagram of the waterlogging disaster event.The SD model is applied to the simulation analysis of a typical waterlogging disaster event in Xi'an.The results show that with the increase of time,increase the control of technical factors,social factors,management factors and natural factors,and the emergency management effect of urban waterlogging disasters tends to be better.Different variables in the SD model have different effects on the emergency management of urban waterlogging disasters.It is necessary to continuously improve the emergency plan,strengthen the construction of urban drainage network,and improve the timeliness of emergency decision-making.