含非线性残差的新能源汽车规模预测方法

New energy vehicle scale prediction method with nonlinear residuals

掌握新能源汽车规模发展的趋势对政府调控、车企发展方向和能源部门决策都具有重要意义,据此文中提出一种含非线性残差的新能源汽车规模预测方法。首先,利用区间预测的方法对经济、政策不确定性进行研究;其次,在考虑规模预测的残差条件下,采用组合预测模型和支持向量回归(SVR)模型,分别对线性成分、非线性残差进行预测;最后,以全国新能源汽车规模为例,得到未来新能源汽车规模的区间范围。通过对比不同预测方法,验证文中方法的有效性,并分析不同政策因素对新能源汽车的规模演化影响,可为后期充电设施等相关规划提供参考。

Analyzing the development trend of the scale of new energy vehicles is of great significance to the government regulation,the development direction of vehicle enterprises and the decision-making of the energy department.A new energy vehicle scale prediction method with nonlinear residuals is proposed in this paper.Firstly,the interval prediction method is used to study the uncertainty of economic policy.Secondly,considering the residual of scale prediction,the combined prediction model and support vector regression(SVR)model are used to predict the linear component and nonlinear residual respectively.Finally,the range of new energy vehicles scale in the future is obtained by taking the scale of national new energy vehicles as an example.By comparing different prediction methods,the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified,and the impact of different policy factors on the scale evolution of new energy vehicles is analyzed.The proposed method provides a corresponding reference for later charging facilities and other related planning.