人民币汇率波动对旅游服务贸易国际竞争力的影响

Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation on International Competitiveness of Tourism Service Trade

文章立足于我国旅游服务业对外贸易持续发展的背景,研究人民币汇率对旅游服务贸易国际竞争力的影响,确定1995—2019年为观测期。具体使用主成分分析法,确定旅游服务贸易国际竞争力综合指数,而后使用协整模型和ECM模型分析人民币汇率波动对旅游服务贸易国际竞争力的具体影响。研究结果表明:人民币汇率与旅游服务贸易国际竞争力存在长期协整关系,且短期内旅游服务贸易国际竞争力受到了人民币汇率波动、误差修正项的影响,旅游服务贸易国际竞争力非均衡状态会以20.51%的力度向均衡状态修正。

Based on the background of the sustainable development of foreign trade in China s tourism service industry,the impact of RMB exchange rate on the international competitiveness of international trade in tourism services is studied,and the period from 1995 to 2019 is taken for observation.Specifically,the principal component analysis method is used to determine the comprehensive index of the international competitiveness of international trade in tourism services,and then the co-integration model and ECM model are used to analyze the specific impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the international competitiveness of international trade in tourism services.The results show that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the international competitiveness of tourism-service trade.Besides,in the short term,the international competitiveness of tourism service trade is affected by the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and the error correction term,and the disequilibrium state of the international competitiveness of tourism service trade will be corrected to the equilibrium state by 20.51%.