基于Kaiser模型的我国澳门医院灾害脆弱性分析

Disaster vulnerability analysis of Macao hospitals based on Kaiser model

目的分析澳门特别行政区(以下简称澳门)医院灾害脆弱性,客观评估灾害风险,为澳门医院制定应急预案,提高应急反应处理能力提供参考。方法2021年12月至2022年2月,选取澳门3家综合医院,采用科室分层随机抽样方法,抽取118名医务人员进行问卷调查,同时选取7位全职医务人员及2位医疗卫生领域专家进行专家咨询。调查问卷的主要内容是基于Kaiser模型的医院灾害风险评估,并采用3轮专家咨询法确定模型指标,计算每个指标的风险值进行医院灾害脆弱性分析。结果回收有效问卷107份。风险值排名前5位的医院灾害事件依次为台风(52.42%)、大型公共卫生事件/流行病暴发(47.55%)、强雷暴对流天气(38.68%)、极端温度(37.31%)和信息系统故障(33.75%);医院灾害事件类别按照风险值从高到低排名依次为自然灾害类(35.69%)、信息安全类(29.49%)、医疗技术事故类(29.36%)、设备技术事故类(26.25%)、危险品伤害类(25.13%)和人员伤害类(19.98%)。结论我国澳门医院的自然灾害类事件整体的风险值最高,其次为信息安全类;另外,人员伤害类的大型公共卫生事件/流行病暴发事件风险值较高,值得关注。

Objective To analyze the disaster vulnerability of hospitals in Macao Special Administrative Region to assess the disaster risk objectively,so as to provide reference for Macao hospitals to formulate their emergency plans and improve their emergency response and handling capacity.Methods From December 2021 to February 2022,118 medical staff were selected for a questionnaire survey using the method of departmental stratified random sampling from three general hospitals in Macao.At the same time,7 full-time medical staff and 2 experts in the field of health care were selected for expert consultation.The main content of the questionnaire was the hospital disaster risk assessment based on the Kaiser model,and three-round expert consultation method was used to determine the model indicators.The risk value of each indicator was calculated to analyze the hospital disaster vulnerability.Results 107 valid questionnaires were collected.The top five events in the hospital disaster risk value were typhoon(52.42%),large-scale public health events/epidemic outbreaks(47.55%),strong thunderstorm convective weather(38.68%),extreme temperature(37.31%)and information system failure(33.75%).As ranked by the total risk value,the categories of hospital disasters were natural disasters(35.69%),information security(29.49%),medical technology accidents(29.36%),equipment technology accidents(26.25%),dangerous goods injuries(25.13%)and personnel injuries(19.98%).Conclusions Macao hospitals are exposed to the highest total risk value in natural disasters,followed by information security.In addition,the risk value of large-scale public health events and epidemic outbreaks of personal injury is also so high as to deserve attention.Macao hospitals should formulate effective emergency response plans according to the risk values of various disasters and the actual situation of each medical department,so as to minimize the losses caused by disasters to both hospitals and patients.