基于改进SEIR模型的微博舆情衍生话题传播研究

Research on Microblog Public Opinion Derived Topic Communication based on Improved SEIR Model

新媒体时代,微博舆情衍生话题传播逐渐盛行,对该类舆情传播规律的研究成为学者们关注的重点。基于改进SEIR舆情传播模型,考虑在新话题吸引下免疫者转化为新话题传播者和不同话题传播存在竞争的情况,构建微博舆情衍生话题传播模型,通过微分方程求出传播阈值进行分析,运用Lotka-Volterra竞争模型对不同话题的竞争演化进行分析,并在真实案例基础上运用NetLogo和Matlab软件对模型进行仿真模拟,通过具体案例验证微博舆情衍生话题传播模型的可行性和有效性。研究结果表明,免疫者重新开始传播新话题的情况扩大了舆情规模和影响力,同一舆情的不同话题之间也存在竞争,竞争加大了舆情传播影响。为政府有效应对微博舆情衍生话题传播提供了具体策略及建议。

In the new media era, the dissemination of microblog public opinion derived topics is becoming more and more popular, and the research on the dissemination law of this kind of public opinion has become the focus of scholars. Based on the improved SEIR public opinion communication model, considering the transformation of immune people into new topic communicators under the attraction of new topics and the competition in the communication of different topics, this paper constructs a microblog public opinion derived topic communication model, calculates the communication threshold through differential equation for analysis, and uses Lotka-Volterra competition model to analyze the competitive evolution of different topics. Based on the real case, the model is simulated by using NetLogo and MATLAB software. The feasibility and effectiveness of microblog public opinion derived topic communication model are verified through specific cases. The results show that the situation that immunized people start to spread new topics again expands the scale and influence of public opinion, and there is competition between different topics of the same public opinion, and its competition increases the impact of public opinion communication. Finally, it provides some specific strategies and suggestions for the government to effectively deal with the communication of microblog public opinion derived topics.