基于AHP-EWM的供热方案综合决策方法研究

Comprehensive Decision Method of Heating Scheme Based on AHP-EWM

城镇冬季供热是保障居民生活的基础措施,应对不同住宅建筑供热方式进行全面综合评估并科学合理地选择适当的供热方式。从节能、环保和经济3个方面建立评价指标体系,研究北方地区不同供热方案的适用性,并通过建立供热3E模型反映决策目标与多准则之间的关系。采用基于层次分析法和熵权法结合的综合决策方法对各类指标权重进行计算,得到主客观综合条件下的评价结果。以陕西某多层住宅楼为例,利用提出的评价模型对6种不同供热方式进行综合分析,所得的效用综合得分表明热电联产集中供热的性能最优,电驱动空气源热泵供热和燃气壁挂炉分户供热次之。为北方城镇供热合理化布局提供了理论依据,为进一步研究不同地区城市建筑选择供热方式组合提供可行思路框架。

Urban heating in winter is the basic measure to ensure residents’ living. The comprehensive assessment of heating methods of different residential buildings is necessary for selecting appropriate heating methods scientifically and rationally. The evaluation index system is establish from three aspects including energy-saving, environmental protection and economy to study the applicability of different heating schemes in north China;and the relationship between the decision objectives and the multicriteria is reflected through establishing the heating three-E’s model. The comprehensive decision-making method based on analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method are applied for calculation for all kinds of index weight, the subjective and objective comprehensive evaluation results are obtained. A multi-storey building in Shaanxi is analyzed. The proposed evaluation model is utilized to comprehensively analyze six heating ways. The comprehensive score obtained shows that the performance of cogeneration centralized heating is the best, followed by electric-driven air source heat pump heating and wall-mounted gas boiler for individual heating times. It provides a theoretical basis for the rational layout of heating in northern cities and towns, and provides a feasible framework for further research on the combination of heating methods for urban buildings in different regions.