点“碳”成金:碳金融的去能源化特征和货币政策溢出效应

Turning Carbon into Gold: The Energy Decentralization Characteristics of Carbon Finance and the Spillover Effect of Monetary Policy

本文选择欧盟碳交易市场价格为研究标的,构建实证模型对其能源化特征和金融属性进行考量,得出结论:一是碳交易市场研究的实证结论具有时变特征,体现了气候政策金融化的历史演变过程;二是GARCH效应的实证判别发现,碳与石油之间价格动态关联性最强,结合时变脉冲分析表现为去能源化的单向显著影响;三是碳资产受美联储货币政策影响的金融属性特征初步显现,相互的动态关联性和冲击效应存在增强趋势,呈现一定的去美元化特征;四是基于金融韧性测度的实证分析发现,碳金融与石油市场间的风险传染性较强,碳市场震荡加剧将会触动美元币值的稳定,存在和债券市场的替代性效应。本文就金融支持“碳达峰、碳中和”提出我国碳市场发展的宏观政策建议和风险缓释策略:一是谋划布局人民币主导的碳金融市场;二是围绕碳定价,完善基础设施和市场体系建设,应对风险冲击;三是推进中欧标准趋同,拓展绿色金融国际合作空间。

This paper chooses the price of EU carbon trading market as the research object, constructs an empirical model, considers its energy characteristics and financial attributes, and draws conclusions as follows. First, the empirical conclusion of carbon trading market research has time-varying characteristics, which reflects the historical evolution process of climate policy financialization. The second is the empirical discrimination of GARCH effect.It is found that the dynamic correlation between carbon and oil price is the strongest.Combined with time-varying pulse analysis, it shows a significant one-way impact of energy decentralization. Third, the financial attributes of carbon assets affected by the FED’s monetary policy initially appear, but the dynamic correlation and impact effect are not strong, showing a certain de-dollarization characteristics. Fourth, based on the empirical analysis of financial resilience measurement, it is found that the risk contagion between carbon finance and oil market is strong, and the intensification of carbon market shock will touch the stability of US dollar value and there is the substitution effect of bond market.This paper puts forward macro policy suggestions and risk mitigation strategies for the development of China’s carbon market on financial support for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. First, it should plan and layout the carbon financial market dominated by RMB. Second, focusing on carbon pricing, it should improve infrastructure and market system construction, and deal with risk shocks. Third, it should promote the convergence of China and EU standards and expand the space for international cooperation in green finance.