权力再分配、国内政治与中美关系的未来

Power Redistribution,Domestic Politics and the Future of China-U.S.Relations

在奥巴马政府第二任期时,美国、澳大利亚等国学术界和战略界出现了一些探讨中美之间在涉及两国核心利益的重要议题上实现战略交易之可行性或可能性的著述。讨论涉及的议题主要包括美国在亚太地区的利益与存在、南海问题、东海问题、台湾问题、朝鲜半岛问题等。世界主要大国,特别是中美两国在全球“权力再分配”中相对位置的变化、两国对自身核心利益的界定和认知,以及各自国内政治与社会的制约等因素,决定了中美两国不可能在这些关键议题上实现“大交易”。但在当前中美全面竞争态势日益加剧的情势下,深入探讨这些问题依然具有很强的现实意义。中美关系的未来取决于两国能否通过交流,有效管控分歧,避免可能失控的冲突,形成中美“和平共处”的新模式。

During the second term of Obama presidency,scholars and strategists from Australia and the U.S.discussed the possibility and feasibility for making a grand bargain between the U.S.and China on issues such as the U.S.interests and presence in the Asia-Pacific,South China Sea and East China Sea disputes,the Taiwan question and the Korean Peninsula security.China and the U.S.are unlikely to achieve“great bargain”on these key issues because of the factors like the changes of relative positions of China and the United States in the global“power redistribution”,the definitions and perceptions of their core interests,as well as their domestic political and social constraints.However,in the current situation of increasingly intensified overall competition between China and the United States,it is still of great practical significance to discuss these issues in depth.The future of China-U.S.relations depends on whether the two countries can effectively manage differences through communication,avoid possibly uncontrollable conflicts,and establish a new model of“peaceful coexistence”.