地方政府债务影响金融生态环境的机理与效应研究——以山东省16地级市面板数据为例

Research on the Mechanism and Effect of Local Government Debt Affecting Financial Ecological Environment——Taking the Panel Data of 16 Prefecture-Level Cities in Shandong Province as an Example

地方政府债务规模扩张和结构演化对金融生态环境发展有着深刻而复杂的影响。本文利用2009-2019年山东省16地级市数据,从地区经济增长、金融发展、政府治理和社会信用体系建设四个方面研究了地方政府债务对金融生态环境的作用机理和影响。研究发现:合理的地方政府债务规模增长对金融生态环境发展有正向促进作用,表现在债务扩张推动了地区经济基础和社会信用基础建设,且尚未发现这一促进作用存在显著的临界值;但隐性债务占比越高越不利于金融生态环境优化,主要是阻碍了地方金融稳定发展;地方政府债务规模和结构演变对周边地区金融生态环境质量的提升具有与本地区同向的效应。

The scale expansion and structural evolution of local government debt have a profound and complex impact on the development of the financial ecological environment. Using the data of 16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province from 2009 to 2019, this paper studies the mechanism and impact of local government debt on the financial ecological environment from four aspects: regional economic growth, financial development, government governance and social credit system construction. The study found that the growth of local government debt scale has a positive role in promoting the development of the financial ecological environment, which is manifested in the fact that the expansion of debt has promoted the construction of regional economic foundations and social credit infrastructure, and no significant critical value has been found for this promotion;The higher the debt ratio, the less conducive to the optimization of the financial ecological environment, mainly hindering the stable development of local finance;The scale and structural evolution of local government debt has the same effect on the improvement of the quality of the financial ecological environment in surrounding areas as the local area.