库布齐沙漠社会经济系统动态仿真及其应用

Dynamic simulation and carrying capacity analysis of a water resource system in Kubuqi Desert

在整合1999—2019年库布齐沙漠区域水资源和社会经济数据的基础上,采用系统动力学模型对库布齐沙漠水资源-社会-生态系统进行仿真模拟,分析1999—2019年库布齐沙漠社会经济和用水时空变化特征,同时建立多情景参数调控模型,综合模拟在不同参数影响下该地区水资源需水总量变化。结果表明:(1)不采取其他措施情况下(常规发展模式),2035年需水总量达11.90×10^(8)m^(3),大于该区域供水总量,呈超载状态。(2)通过不同参数方案调节后,保持该区域种植面积不变,现状灌溉方式不变,需水量为9.76×10^(8)m^(3),滴灌普及率达50%以上(S3),将处于可载状态,且需水量下降至7.80×10^(8)m^(3),对沙漠水资源供需矛盾有所缓解。建议在建设库布齐沙漠生态恢复过程中,应着重推广滴灌节水,合理使用当地水资源,持续发展生态。

Based on the integration of water resources and socio-economic data in the Kubuqi Desert from 1999to 2019, this paper used the system dynamic model to simulate the water resource-society-ecological system of the Kubuqi Desert. In addition, a multi-scenario parameter control model was established to comprehensively simulate the changes in the total water demand of water resources in the region under the influence of different parameters.Results show that if no other measures are taken(conventional development mode), then the total water demand in 2035 will reach 11.90 per one hundred million cubic meters, which is greater than the total water supply in the region, showing an overload state. After adjustment for different parameter schemes, the planting area and current irrigation method remain unchanged, and the water demand is 9.76 per one hundred million cubic meters. In addition, the penetration rate of drip irrigation exceeds 50%(S3), showing a loadable state, and the water demand will drop to 7.80 per one hundred million cubic meters, which alleviates the contradiction between the supply and demand of desert water resources. Therefore, during ecological restoration of the Kubuqi Desert, emphasis should be placed on the promotion of drip irrigation to save water, rational use of local water resources, and sustainable ecological development.