基于PLUS-SD耦合模型的黑河流域中游甘临高地区土地利用研究

Land use in the Gan-Lin-Gao region of middle reaches of Heihe River Basin based on a PLUS-SD coupling model

土地利用/覆被变化(Land Use and Cover Change,LUCC)是全球环境变化的重要组成部分。数量-空间耦合模型因能有效模拟土地利用斑块数量及其在空间上的快速变化,成为近年来土地利用研究的主要手段。本研究首先对比斑块生成土地利用变化模拟模型(Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation Model,PLUS)、未来土地利用模型(Future Land Use Simulation Model,FLUS)和小尺度土地利用变化及其空间效益模型(Conversion of Land Use and Its Effects at Small Regional Extent,CLUE-S)模拟2015年黑河流域中游甘临高地区(张掖市甘州区、临泽县和高台县)土地利用结构,筛选出最适合研究区的空间模拟模型;然后将其与系统动力学模型(System Dynamics,SD)进行耦合,形成数量-空间耦合模型;最后利用耦合模型预测2030年研究区在经济发展(Economic Development,ED)、生态保护(Ecological Protection,EP)和协调发展(Harmonious Development,HD)情景下的土地利用结构,并进行对比评价。研究结果表明:(1)在同一像元尺度下,PLUS模型的质量系数(Figure of Merit,FoM)高于FLUS和CLUE-S模型,且3个模型的数量Kappa系数(K_(no))和位置Kappa系数(Klocation)从高至低为:PLUS、CLUE-S和FLUS模型,说明PLUS模型在本研究区的空间拟合效果最优;(2)PLUS-SD耦合模型预测的不同情景表明,ED情景中建设用地和耕地迅速扩张但森林覆盖率较低,EP情景中的森林覆盖率明显提高,但经济发展水平偏低,HD情景中城市化水平提高的同时生态环境呈良性发展。本研究验证了PLUS-SD耦合模型的显著优势,凸显了PLUS模型有效的土地利用空间模拟能力与SD模型强大的数据处理功能。该结果可为土地规划政策的制定提供参考。

A quantity-space coupling model can effectively simulate the number of land-use patches and their rapid spatial changes. Thus, this model has become the main method of land use research in recent years. This research first compared the simulated land-use structure of the patch-generating land-use simulation model(PLUS), future land-use simulation model(FLUS), and conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent(CLUE-S)in the Gan-Lin-Gao region(Ganzhou District, Linze County and Gaotai County of Zhangye City) of the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin in 2015. In addition, this research selected the suitable spatial simulation model for the study area;then, it was coupled with the system dynamics model(SD) to form a quantitative-spatial coupling model. Finally, the coupling model was used to predict the land-use structure of the economic development(ED),ecological protection(EP), and harmonious development(HD) scenarios, and comparative evaluation was conducted. The research results showed that(1) at the same pixel scale, the figure of merit of the PLUS model was higher than that of the FLUS and CLUE-S models, and the K_(no)and Klocationof the three models were PLUS,CLUE-S, and FLUS from high to low, indicating that the PLUS model had the best spatial fitting effect in this study area.(2) Moreover, the different scenarios predicted by the PLUS-SD coupling model showed that the construction land and arable land in the ED scenario expanded rapidly, but the forest coverage rate was low.Furthermore, the forest coverage rate in the EP scenario increased significantly, but the level of ED was low, and the urbanization in the HD scenario improved when the ecological environment was gradually developing. This research determined the significant advantages of the PLUS-SD coupling model and highlighted the effective land-use spatial simulation capabilities of the PLUS model and powerful data processing capabilities of the SD model. The results can provide reference for the formulation of land planning policies.