“禁燃令”对京津冀地区除夕夜空气质量的影响

The effect of fireworks prohibition on air quality during Chinese New Year’s Eve:Evidence from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

基于安全和环保的考虑,我国多地颁布了节日期间“禁燃令”,收紧烟花爆竹燃放.以京津冀地区为例,基于2015-2020年13个城市共89个国控监测点的空气质量数据、城市级气象数据,以及烟花爆竹禁限放规定实施数据,采用多期双重差分法,评估“禁燃令”对除夕夜空气质量改善的效果.结果表明,“禁燃令”的推行可以改善京津冀地区除夕夜空气质量.具体而言,除夕夜间颗粒态污染物(PM_(2.5)、PM_(10))小时浓度未出现明显陡升现象;除夕夜间PM_(2.5)均值浓度下降18.9%,峰值浓度下降32.2%,PM_(10)均值浓度下降20.7%,峰值浓度下降36.8%,SO_(2)峰值浓度下降28.1%;烟花爆竹禁放措施的实施显著降低了颗粒态污染物污染,但尚无证据表明NO_(2)、O_(3)、CO浓度显著降低.本文论证了“禁燃令”政策的环境效益,并为公众行为干预政策的制定提供了参考.

The Prohibition of Fireworks during Festivals has been issued in many cities for safety and environmental protection.This study evaluates the effect of fireworks prohibition on air quality during Chinese New Year's Eve,taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as an example.To this end,dynamic difference-in-differences model is constructed based on air quality data from 89 state-controlled monitoring sites in 13 cities,city-level meteorological data,and policy implementation data about the prohibition and restriction on fireworks and firecrackers from 2015 to 2020.The results show that the prohibition of fireworks can improve air quality during Chinese New Year’s Eve in the studied region.The sharp increase in hourly concentration of particulate pollutants(PM_(2.5) and PM_(10))during Chinese New Year’s Eve are reduced by the prohibition policy.The average PM_(2.5) concentration,peak PM_(2.5) concentration,average PM_(10) concentration,peak PM_(10) concentration,and peak SO_(2) concentration during Chinese New Year’s Eve are respectively decreased by 18.9%,32.2%,20.7%,36.8%,and 28.1%.However,there is no evidence that the concentration of NO_(2),O_(3),and CO can be significantly reduced due to the prohibition policy.This study demonstrates the environmental benefits of the prohibition of fireworks,and provides reference for the related policy making.