基于粤港澳大湾区建设的水资源利用与经济发展关系研究

Research on the Relationship Between Water Resources Utilization and Economic Development Based on the Construction of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

中国是世界上水资源最贫乏的国家之一,其水资源利用效率同经济发展之间的矛盾正日趋严峻。近年来,伴随环境保护意识增强和对经济建设质量要求不断提升,探究水资源利用与经济发展之间的关系显得愈发重要。基于此,以粤港澳大湾区9市为例,利用LMDI模型将2012-2020年间用水量变化进行分解,并引入Tapio脱钩弹性法厘清水资源利用量与经济增长之间的脱钩关系,初步得出以下结论:(1)大湾区建设导致产业用水量出现明显变化。具体而言,伴随总用水量出现下降的同时,第二产业用水量下降较快、第三产业用水量迅猛上升,第一产业则保持相对平稳态势;(2)水资源利用变化的拉动效应主要受规模经济效应和人口效应的影响,而水资源利用变化的抑制效应主要受产业结构效应和用水效率影响,其中用水效率占主导;(3)第一产业的“强脱钩”出现次数最多,第二产业脱钩状态大体经历了“强负脱钩-弱脱钩-强脱钩”的变化,第三产业的脱钩关系表现出较大的波动性。

China is one of the countries with the poorest water resources in the world.The contradiction between water resources utilization efficiency and economic development is becoming more and more serious.In recent years,with the increasing awareness of environmental protection and the increasing requirements for the quality of economic construction,it has become increasingly important to explore the relationship between water resources utilization and economic development.Based on this,this paper took 9 cities in the GuangdongHongkong-Macao Greater Bay Area as examples,used the LMDI model to decompose the change of water consumption from 2012 to 2020,and introduced the Tapio decoupling elasticity method to clarify the decoupling relationship between water consumption and economic growth.The preliminary conclusions are as follows:(1)the construction of the greater bay area leads to significant changes in industrial water consumption.Specifically,with the decrease of total water consumption,water consumption in the secondary industry decreased rapidly,water consumption in the tertiary industry increased rapidly,and water consumption in the primary industry remained relatively stable.(2)The pull effect of water resources use change is mainly influenced by scale economy effect and population effect,while the inhibition effect is mainly influenced by industrial structure effect and water quota effect,and water quota effect is dominant.(3)The"strong decoupling"occurred most frequently in the primary industry,and the decoupling state of the secondary industry experienced a change of"strong negative decoupling-weak decoupling-strong decoupling",and the decoupling relationship of the tertiary industry showed great volatility.